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东英亚洲证券:先达国际物流(06123.HK)On Time with a touch of Alibaba magic

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先达国际物流
Cross-border e-commerce (“CBEC”) logistics for Alibaba:

On Time Logistics announced it would be providing logistics service to Cainiao, Alibaba’s supply chain management company. We believe the logistics services include collecting, warehousing, airlines transportation, distribution, customs clearance, destination transportation and other value-added services for small parcels from the sellers in AliExpress, the global online B2C e-commerce platform for export in Alibaba.

As OTL has been providing CBEC logistics to Russia and Belarus for Cainiao through Posti, we think OTL directly providing logistics services to Cainiao will not require significant investment as the backbone IT system for parcel tracking is already in place. Besides, with an asset-light model, OTL will outsource the local delivery in Russia to IML, a Russian local courier, to ensure coverage at low cost.

Shares buyback gave solid support to share price:

OTL has been buying back 434k shares or 0.1% stake in the market since mid-September, driving the share to outperform the market by 32% in 1 month. We believe the buyback action signals company’s confidence in 2H15E results that would have positive effect on share price performance.

Maintain BUY with TP revised up to HK$1.7:

The cooperation with Alibaba in cross-border e-commerce logistics will create a significant channel to strengthen OTL’s air freight services. Accordingly we have revised up our air freight volume and ASP assumptions by 6.4ppt and 5.0ppt for FY15E given higher contribution from CBEC logistics. We also revise up our profit forecast by 26%/7%/1% for FY15E/16E/17E. We maintain our BUY rating with TP revised up to HK$1.7, representing 48% upside, for 8x FY16E PE.

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研报原文:东英亚洲证券:先达国际物流(06123.HK)On Time with a touch of Alibaba magic
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