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独家:期指2016年首交易日料淡

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期指2
作者 香港 岑智勇 牛牛网

指呈近倒「V」形走势,全日波幅 167点。

期指低开 57点,开市水平 21850点。期指低开后反弹,更一度倒升,惟两度在22000大关前见阻力回软,收报 21910点,升3点,低水4点,成交37144张。 1月期指未平仓合约减少2384张至90119张;2月期指未平仓合约为196张。

期指10 SMA升穿20 SMA,出现「黄金交叉」的利好讯号;惟期指以阳烛「陀螺」收市,并在10 SMA 及20 SMA 间波动,未有明显方向。VHSI 回软,料利好后市。

夜期收报 21935点,升25点,高水52.85点,成交4742张。美股在2015年最后一个交易日下跌,港股ADR亦软,与夜期背驰。中国去年12月制造业PMI微升至49.7,乎预期,但仍处于50的盛衰分界线之下。今早亚太股市偏软,港汇转弱,美汇转强,料利淡期指走势。另,财新中国将于9:45公布PMI,料添变数。

策略上,料期指走势偏淡,13时后或略弹,但15时后偏软。建议在21800或以上做淡,止损为沽出水平+50,目标为沽出水平-100或以上,并在收市前平仓。

(若建议水平与实际水平相差多于 100点,则策略无效,改为观望)

现货方面,恒指收报 21914.4点,升32.25点;国企指数收报 9661.03点,升1.15点,大市成交 246.79亿元。参考期指走势,料恒指走势偏淡,或下试21800水平。

第一支持位:21704 /第二支持位:21488

第一阻力位:22170 /第二阻力位:22297

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