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港媒:减税途径胜过对政治失败的恐惧——下一步是对华贸易谈判

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文:廖敏雄 Minxiong

减税法案通过战胜了政治失败的恐惧

Tax cut passage trumps fear of political failure

 

Steven Blitz

2017年12月3日

 

参议院通过旨在与议院谈判的税收计画

众议院和参议院计画的焦点是削减公司税而不是个人税

最终目标是抓住国外正在发生的商业扩张

税改通过了,贸易协议的压力将上升- 中国不会愿意玩

Senate passes tax plan designed for negotiation withthe House

Focus of House and Senate plans is cut business notpersonal taxes

Eventual goal is to capture business expansion occurringabroad

With taxes passed, trade agreement pressures to increase–Chinais unwilling to play

 

房屋税计画在我们看来有一个计画样子,参议院的版本看起来更像是一个零碎的聚集点,用来收集与众议院谈判时所需要的票数(做到了)和/或讨价还价的筹码。因此,参议院的版本反映了共和党人害怕通过不了,因为他们52个成员中需要50个人同意通过才行,这是一种真实的恐惧。

The House tax plan looks like a plan to us; the Senateversion looks more like an agglomeration of bits and pieces designed to either captureneeded votes (which it did) and/or be bargaining chips in negotiating with theHouse. The Senate version consequently reflects Republicans’ fear of failing toget something enacted, a realistic fear when passage requires 50 of their 52 membersto agree.

 

很难看出参议院计画的经济影响,其税率变化要么来得太晚,要么到期太早,所有这些都是为了使整个计画的总成本低于规定的未来10年1.5万亿美元的上限。但它的影响在任何情况下都是有意义的,因为由两院领导人选出人员组成的众议院/参议院联席委员会现在要致力于协调两个计画之间的分歧。

It isdifficult to discern the economic impact of the Senate plan with its mix of taxchanges that either drop in late or leave early, all in the name of keeping thetotal cost of the package below the mandated $1.5trn ceiling over 10 years. Itsimpact is somewhat moot in any event, as a House/Senate conference committee, itsmembers chosen by the leaders of the two chambers, will now be tasked with reconcilingthe differences between the two plans. 

这两个税收计画的总体重点是提高企业的资本税后回报- 无论是企业或仲介实体(通常是小企业,专业服务,地产合伙企业等)。一揽子计画中包括了个人税收的变化,因为不管哪一方占多数席位,国会都不会通过把个人排除在外的企业减税。

The overarching focus of both tax plans is to raisethe after-tax return on capital for business – be they corporations or pass-throughentities (typically smaller businesses, professional services, real estate partnerships,etc). Personal tax changes were included in the package because Congress, regardlessof which party is in the majority, won’t pass a tax cut for businesses that excludesindividuals.

 

众议院的税改计画在个人方面的作用是简化家庭的税法,从根本上减少税率的数量和水準,提高标準抵扣和废除最低替代缴税额度(AMT)。它通过消除或严格限制对医疗费用、抵押贷款利息以及州和地方税收的抵扣来用于承担减税的成本。从净结果来看,现在的版本与一开始并不是那么不一样:一些收入群体会比另一些收入群体获得更多的收益。简化的成本是消除了那些对支出决定产生影响的税收激励,例如选择拥有而不是租赁。

What the House plan does on the individual side is tosimplify the tax code for households by essentially reducing the number and levelof tax rates, increasing standard deductions and ending AMT. It pays for the costby eliminating or severely limiting deductions for medical expenses, mortgage interestand state and local taxes. On net, the outcome is not all that different from thestarting point: some income groups will gain a bit more than others lose. The costof simplification is the elimination of tax incentives that shape spending decisions,such as choosing to own rather than rent.

 

参议院的版本使得众议院在个人方面的计画複杂化,没有明显的目的,而不是让整体数字获得平衡。它结束了平价医疗法案(ACA)个人的强制条款,并通过取消州和地方的税收抵扣以及不废除最低替代缴税额度(AMT)来提高税收。但它恢复了全额抵押贷款利息抵扣。就好像原来还不够混杂要再弄混杂一点,参议院怕预算赤字变得太大,对个人所得税减免附加了所谓“夕阳”条款(5年后失效)。“夕阳”条款仅仅是为了使计画的静态数位游戏达到预期目标- 但没有人会期待下一任总统或国会允许这个太阳下山。

TheSenate version complicates the House plan on the individual side to no obviouspurpose other than to make the overall numbers work. It ends the ACA individualmandate and raises taxes by eliminating state and local tax deductions without endingAMT. But it restores the full mortgage interest deduction. As if this mixed bagwasn’t mixed up enough, the Senate attached sunset provisions to the personal ratecuts in case the budget deficit gets too big. The sunset clause is there only tomake the static maths of the programme work out as intended – no one expects thenext president or Congress to allow this sun to go down. 

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税收计画的最终定论将需要看其对资本形成的影响,尤其是它是否改变了商业利润增长的动态,但净的产物(资本加劳动力)是其GDP占比在趋势的基础上不断下降(见下图)。对美国公司增加海外生产的三重进攻是放鬆管制、降低税收、重新谈判贸易协定。如下图所示,耐用品工业产出呈平缓走势,非汽车资本品净进口量激增,这是该政策的一个特别聚焦点。

Thetax plan will ultimately be judged by its impact on capital formation, notably whetherit alters the business dynamic of growing profits but a net product (capital pluslabour) that, on a trend basis, has been a declining portion of GDP (see chart below).The three-pronged attack on increasing overseas production by US firms is to reduceregulations, lower taxes and renegotiate trade pacts. The flat trend for industrialoutput of durables and the surge in net imports of capital goods ex-autos, illustratedbelow, is a particular focus of this policy.

在税收计画的商业方面,以下是众议院和参议院议案之间的一些主要差异:

On the business side of the tax plan, here are somemajor differences between the House and Senate bills:

 

公司税率:从35%降至20%,参议院2019年开始。

公司利息支出:众议院限制为税息折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)的30%。参议院将抵扣额调整到调整后的应纳税所得额的30%- 这个抵扣额比议会版本少。

资本投入:众议院一年全部用完,2022年到期。参议院也全部到位,2022年后逐年下调20个百分点。

仲介机构:众议院提出仲介机构25%的最高税率,限制其使用,并设定利润/工资的认定规则。参议院允许个人抵扣除国内合格营业收入的23%,降低有效税率。众议院设置25%的税率。参议院提出23%的抵扣,并扩大这些实体的定义,把公开交易合伙制企业(publicly traded partnerships)包括进来。

汇回国内的累积海外利润的一次性徵税:众议院要求现金徵收14%,参议院14.5%。对于非流动性资产,众议院的税率是7%,参议院是7.5%。

国际收入:众议院和参议院版本转向领土税制。众议院对美国公司向相关外国公司支付的一些款项徵收特许权税。参议院要求美国公司在其应税收入中纳入其全球无形的低税收入。

Corporate tax rate: cut to 20% from 35%, Senate begins2019.

Corporate interest expenses: House limits to 30% ofEBITDA. The Senate limits deduction to 30% of adjusted taxable income – effectivelya smaller deduction than the House version.

Capital investment: House has full expensing in yearone, provision expires in 2022. Senate also moves to full expensing, but phasesit out by 20 percentage points per year after 2022.

Pass-throughs: The House proposes a 25% top rate onpass-through businesses, limits its use and sets profit/wage designation. The Senatelowers the effective tax rate by allowing individuals to deduct 23% of domesticqualified business income. House sets 25% rate. Senate provides 23% deduction andwidens the definition of entities to include publicly traded partnerships

One-time tax on repatriated accumulated foreign profits:House taxes cash held abroad at 14% and the Senate at 14.5%. For illiquid assets,the House tax rate is 7% and the Senate’s is 7.5%.

Internationalincome: House and Senate versions move toward a territorial tax system. The Houseimposes an excise tax on some  payments madeby US corporations to related foreign firms. Senate requiresU.S.corporationsto include in taxable income its global intangible low-tax income.

为了调和这两个计画,我们认为众议院版本一般在个人方面胜出,而参议院版本在商业方面胜出,除了一个例外- 企业减税不要延迟一年。我们将看到他们如何为此多增加的成本达成一致,甚至可能採用22%的公司税率。

As for reconciling the two plans, we think the Houseversion generally wins out on the personal side and the Senate version predominateson the business side with one exception – no one-year delay on the corporate taxcut. We will see how they agree to pay for that, perhaps even by adopting a 22%corporate rate.

 

关于赤字方面,无论是否认为该计画会产生支持者预期的增长(我们倾向于不会实现),实施减税政策但又不增加赤字实际上是不可能的。这是因为如此多的美国预算支出是与医疗保险(Medicare)和医疗补助(Medicaid)等权利有关的转移支付(见下图)。考虑到与前几年相比,政府消费相对于国内生产总值的水準较低,如果政府通过增加商品和服务的支出(基础设施)来扩大赤字,对经济增长的影响可能会更大。话说回来,减税比建新桥更容易立法。

In regardto the deficit, whether one thinks the plan will generate the growth anticipatedby its backers or not (we lean towards the nots), it is virtually impossible toenact tax cuts that are not deficit-financed. That is because so muchUSbudget expenditureis in the form of transfers tied to entitlements such as Medicare and Medicaid(see chart below). Considering the low level of government consumption relativeto GDP compared with prior years, the impact on growth would probably be greaterif the government widened the deficit by spending more on goods and services (infrastructure).Then again, tax cuts are easier to legislate than a new bridge.

为了确保削减企业税的确能提高国内资本支出,我们现在预计对现有贸易协定进行改革以及达成新协定的压力会增大。例如,北美自由贸易协定可能在1月份重新成为头条新闻。至于中国,随着美国政府拒绝承认中国市场经济地位以及对中国铝合金板材出口的反倾销调查,特朗普北京访问时示好姿态已经进一步淡化。一场全面的贸易战似乎还不大可能,但在这期间我们期待会有大量的嘴战,这不仅仅是因为今年前10个月中国对美出口同比增长了11%。

To help make sure the proposed cuts in businesstaxes do indeed boost domestic capex, we now expect mounting pressure to reformexisting trade deals and/or agree new ones. NAFTA, for example, is likely tocome back into the headlines in January. As forChina,the bonhomie of Trump’s Beijing visit has fadedfurther with the administration’s rejection of Beijing’s bid for market economy status andan anti-dumping investigation into PRC aluminium alloy sheet exports. Afull-scale trade war still seems unlikely, but expect plenty of pot shots inthe meantime, not least because Chinese exports to theUSin the first10 months of the year grow 11% yoy.

 

美中全面经济对话已经冻结,政府方面已经洩露出一些关于更强硬贸易手段的消息。这反映了多少鹰派对总统的影响?总统到底受到多少的挫败?对中期选举的意义如何?多少是政治游戏?大概四个都有。但是,这不会让中国领导人

感到惊讶,因为他们在实施他们的国家战略。我们注定有缘无分…

The US-China Comprehensive Economic Dialogue hasbeen frozen, and there has been a flurry of leaks from the administration abouta tougher trade approach. How much does that reflect the growing influence ofhawks on President Trump, how much presidential frustration, how much shapingup for midterm elections, how much inside-the-Beltway game playing? Probablyall four. But it is not going to impress President Xi and Co as they pursuetheir strategy of national projection. Ships passing in the night…

 

作者:廖敏雄 Minxiong,TS Lombard(中国)总经理,点击本页左下角可以继续“阅读原文”。


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