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方泽翘:复苏概念带动中国铝业跑出

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亨言泽语

方泽翘,国农证券投资经理。毕业于澳洲莫纳什大学,主修金融及投资。方先生对股票投资具多年经验,擅长以基本分析为基础,配合深入浅出的技术分析捕捉交易机遇。曾于不同行业任职管理人员,对板块活动及市场行为有透彻了解。现每月主讲各投资讲座、接受知名媒体访问,并为国农证券编写股市评论及为《炒股帮》和《经济通》每周撰文。

复苏概念带动中国铝业跑出

资源股近日受到市场热钱带动,有逐步回暖的迹象。市场一直预期金属资源股将会在拜登超过2兆美元的基础建设投资方案下,再度走强,未来对于基本金属资源的需求将会逐渐增加。由于经济复苏之际,交通基础建设、民生基础建设等将会增加,加上电动车市场的需求,所以现时投资金属资源股作中长线部署是一个不错的选择。当中铝业板块,值得关注。

由国务院国有资产监督管理委员会全资拥有的中国铝业集团有限公司其下持有32.16%在港上市的中国铝业股份有限公司(02600),背后有国家支持,加上近日铝的价格仍然高企,期货已经达到了2,420美元/25吨,目前电解铝价格已超过18,000人民币/吨,创下新高。

中国铝业2020年度的业绩虽受到新冠疫情全球蔓延,贸易摩擦、地缘政治紧张局势加剧,全球宏观经济呈现疲弱态势,影响世界经济增长的不确定因素增多,下行压力持续加大。但在「两保一防」下,集团快速复工复产,2020集团氧化铝产量1,453万吨,较上年增长5.3%;电解铝产量369万吨,较上年减少2.6%;煤炭产量1,120万吨,较上年增长3.8%。本公司2020年实现营业收入人民币1,860亿元,同比减少2.22%;实现净利润总额人民币15.73亿元,同比增长5.5%;实现经营性净现金流人民币148.81亿元,同比增长19.13%。最新2021第一季度的营业收入达人民币526亿,同比增长了32.55%,归属于上市公司股东的净利润则高达人民币9亿元,按年增长约30倍。投资者可以考虑以4元附近增持,并且设8%止蚀价。

【权益披露:本人没持有相关股份及权益】

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