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方澤翹:復甦概念帶動中國鋁業跑出

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亨言澤語

方澤翹,國農證券投資經理。畢業於澳洲莫納什大學,主修金融及投資。方先生對股票投資具多年經驗,擅長以基本分析為基礎,配合深入淺出的技術分析捕捉交易機遇。曾於不同行業任職管理人員,對板塊活動及市場行為有透徹了解。現每月主講各投資講座、接受知名媒體訪問,並為國農證券編寫股市評論及為《炒股幫》和《經濟通》每周撰文。

復甦概念帶動中國鋁業跑出

資源股近日受到市場熱錢帶動,有逐步回暖的跡象。市場一直預期金屬資源股將會在拜登超過2兆美元的基礎建設投資方案下,再度走強,未來對於基本金屬資源的需求將會逐漸增加。由於經濟復甦之際,交通基礎建設、民生基礎建設等將會增加,加上電動車市場的需求,所以現時投資金屬資源股作中長線部署是一個不錯的選擇。當中鋁業板塊,值得關注。

由國務院國有資產監督管理委員會全資擁有的中國鋁業集團有限公司其下持有32.16%在港上市的中國鋁業股份有限公司(02600),背後有國家支持,加上近日鋁的價格仍然高企,期貨已經達到了2,420美元/25噸,目前電解鋁價格已超過18,000人民幣/噸,創下新高。

中國鋁業2020年度的業績雖受到新冠疫情全球蔓延,貿易摩擦、地緣政治緊張局勢加劇,全球宏觀經濟呈現疲弱態勢,影響世界經濟增長的不確定因素增多,下行壓力持續加大。但在「兩保一防」下,集團快速復工復產,2020集團氧化鋁產量1,453萬噸,較上年增長5.3%;電解鋁產量369萬噸,較上年減少2.6%;煤炭產量1,120萬噸,較上年增長3.8%。本公司2020年實現營業收入人民幣1,860億元,同比減少2.22%;實現淨利潤總額人民幣15.73億元,同比增長5.5%;實現經營性淨現金流人民幣148.81億元,同比增長19.13%。最新2021第一季度的營業收入達人民幣526億,同比增長了32.55%,歸屬於上市公司股東的淨利潤則高達人民幣9億元,按年增長約30倍。投資者可以考慮以4元附近增持,並且設8%止蝕價。

【權益披露:本人沒持有相關股份及權益】

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