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现价39目标价65,大众深度捆绑的这家企业,值吗?

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2022年8月15日 13时47分

现价39目标价65,大众深度捆绑的这家企业,值吗?

香港, 2022年8月15日 – (亚太商讯) – 近期,德国弗劳恩霍夫系统与创新研究所(ISI) 发布一份研究报告,认为欧洲将受益于大众汽车、Northvolt和ACC公司等企业的推动,未来三年欧洲电池产量将达到500GWh以上,到2030年将达到1.5TWh。这预示着欧洲的动力电池产业将被按下加速键。

国轩高科经开工厂二期产线

在此背景下,大众汽车在德国萨尔茨吉特的电池工厂于当地时间7月8日破土动工,当日德国总理朔尔茨到场致辞。据悉,该项目前期相关投资即约为20亿欧元(约141亿元人民币),建好后将成为大众集团欧洲电池中心,为旗下的大众、斯柯达和西雅特等汽车品牌生产电池。大众还宣布,未来将与合作伙伴在电池领域投资超200亿欧元(约204亿美元),在欧洲建立6家电池工厂并扩大生产规模。由此,大众汽车2030新能源战略逐渐步入佳境。

值得一提的是,在7月8日大众萨尔茨吉特电池工厂动工仪式上,国轩高科董事长李缜携高管受邀现身,并与大众首席技术官兼零部件公司CEO Thomas Schmall、大众电池和系统负责人Frank Blome等,围绕产品开发、工业化和供应链等话题进行了会议交流。这进一步做实了作为全球汽车巨头的大众,选择与一家中国二线汽车动力电池企业深度捆绑的决心与信心。

UBS(瑞银)在8月发布的一份研报中表示,大众入股后,国轩加速了欧洲市场的扩张计划。近期,国轩独资的德国哥廷根工厂启动改造,公司预期将于2023年投产首期3.5GWh动力电池产能,整个项目全面投产后动力电池产能将达18GWh。值得留意的是,国轩明确了将率先投产磷酸铁锂电池,瑞银认为这或为欧洲车企带来本地化、低成本的电池选择方案,助力其快速切入欧洲车用电池市场。根据瑞银预计,到2025年,大众将成为公司的第一大客户。考虑到公司诸多优势,瑞银将公司目标价格上调到了65元。较七月收盘价增长近七成。

早在2021年7月,国轩高科便与大众汽车集团以线上签约形式达成战略合作框架协议。双方决定共同推动大众汽车集团萨尔茨吉特工厂的电池工业化生产,国轩将提供相应技术支持。除此以外,根据签署的《关于电池战略合作关系的谅解备忘录》,双方还将共同在欧洲打造从电池材料、电池产品到电池回收利用的全生命周期产业链。

国轩高科与大众的正式合作始于2020年5月,当时,国轩高科向大众中国定向发行30%的股份,同时,股东珠海国轩和实控人李缜向大众中国转让5%股权。完成后,大众中国将合计持有国轩高科4.4亿股,占其总股本的26.47%,并成为第一大股东。

当时的市场分析认为,在全球前十大动力电池企业中,剔除体量过大的宁德时代、LG等企业,及具有竞争风险的比亚迪后,国轩高科是最符合大众收购标的要求的动力电池企业。

彼时国轩高科已是中国第三大电池供应商,在电池研发、电芯化学成分等方面的研发能力方面相当出众,从2019年的数据来看,国轩高科2019年磷酸铁锂装机量为3GWh,市占率为15.1%,位列全国第二。

对此,大众方面给出的回答是:“国轩高科不光是中国第三大电池供应商,而且拥有强大的研发能力,特别是对于电动汽车市场至关重要的电池、电芯化学成分方面有着强大的研发能力。除此之外,他们对于电池的原材料供应链也有良好的把控。”

因此,大众之所以青睐国轩,正是看中其在技术、研发、产能、上游资源等方面过硬的综合实力。

事实上,越是主流的汽车品牌对电池产品的性能质量的要求越高,因此会更倾向与行业头部动力电池制造商合作,例如特斯拉旗下电动汽车的电池主要供应商就包括宁德时代、LG和松下,并在上周传出了关于德产Model Y将搭载比亚迪刀片电池的消息。

2021年末,大众战投正式落地,包括2名大众系高管也加入了国轩高科董事会,另有多位其他大众关键管理人员加入国轩,分布在电池研发、生产制造、品质管控、财务管理、人力资源等多个领域,大众正在以自己百年企业的管理经验全面推动国轩在经营管理方面的变革与创新。

获得大众汽车加持后的国轩高科更是不负众望,在产品输出、技术输出和资本输出等方面,动作频频。今年6月,国轩高科在德国哥廷根基地举行了基地揭牌仪式。哥廷根基地将着力于研发符合欧洲本土的新能源电池产品,目前规划产能为 20GWh,其中第一期棕地工厂已启动改造,预计今年年底前先期启动 5GWh Pack产能投产。棕地工厂和绿地工厂计划在 2025 年全部投产;阿根廷时间6月24日下午,阿根廷总统阿尔贝托·费尔南德斯(Alberto Fernández)在奥利沃斯的总统官邸会见了国轩高科董事长李缜一行,明确支持中资落地阿根廷,盛赞国轩高科的多项实业投资将推动阿根廷新能源产业发展。双方还围绕“双碳”战略、新能源汽车产业、《可持续交通法案》及国轩高科与美洲知名汽车零部件商Corven公司合资建立电动巴士电池计划等话题进行了友好交流。 7月底,国轩高科作为中瑞证券市场互联互通首批GDR上市企业成功在瑞交所挂牌,并以募资总额6.85亿美元的规模,成为今年以来瑞士资本市场股权融资规模最大的项目。

此外,国轩高科通过在国内合肥庐江、宜春、乌海及在海外南美阿根廷等地的项目,逐步打通和布局了从“原材料—电池材料—电芯—电池系统—回收利用”的全产业链生态。公司方面称,受益于全产业链体系建设,产能也将逐步释放,2022年碳酸锂预计产出8000吨左右,预计2023年将实现产出3万吨左右,2025年实现碳酸锂满产产能12万吨。2020年年中,国轩高科与大众合作项目,年产30000吨高镍三元正极材料项目正式落地安徽庐江。此举也成为了电池企业与主机厂合作布局电池原材料的经典案例。目前年产3万吨高镍三元锂电池正极材料项目正在抓紧施工,预计今年年底第一条年产1.5万吨高镍三元产线将投产,2023年全部建成投产。今年6月,国轩科宏年产20万吨高端正极材料项目投产。这些布局未来或将为打造大众标准电芯的供应链体系及国轩高科更为长远的规划打下坚实基础。

大众集团认为,专利电池技术将会是决胜未来移动出行领域的关键因素之一。到2030年,电力将成为大众集团的核心竞争力。大众称未来将采用标准化电芯设计,覆盖集团旗下80%的新能源车型,并在今年萨尔茨吉特工厂的动工仪式上,展示了结合方壳软包特点的新一代标准电芯定义。

事实上最早就标准电芯与大众展开实质性合作的电池公司就是国轩高科。公开信息显示,国轩高科已取得大众标准电芯正式量产定点,形态包括方形磷酸铁锂和三元,成为全球首个获得大众标准电芯定点的电池企业。据行业公开资讯,包括去年年末在安徽合肥新站区开工建设的年产50GWh项目,以及在合肥经开工厂二期项目,都在为未来供货大众作产能准备。目前经开工厂二期业已投产。据悉,6月20日国轩高科经开公司S3工厂日产15000只电芯举行了简单的达产仪式,目前经开工厂二期项目进展顺利,该项目未来主要客户是大众汽车。

除了设计和开发标准电芯外,国轩高科还将支持大众欧洲的电池制造工艺和工厂的技术规划。除目前的德国萨尔茨吉特工厂外,不排除大众在欧洲的其他超级电池工厂也将获得国轩高科的技术支持。而另据消息人士透露,短期内国轩还将迎来一位在供应链和生产管理方面经验丰富的大众高管,此举或可加速标准电芯项目的推进和尽早供货。

国际能源署(IEA)发布的一份报告预测,2030年全球动力电池需求量将从340GWh增至3500GWh。面对未来巨大的市场蓝海,大众对自身的新能源转型已立下雄心壮志,而国轩高科是否能借助大众转型机遇实现弯道超车,我们将拭目以待。


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