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2022年8月15日 13時47分

現價39目標價65,大眾深度捆綁的這家企業,值嗎?

香港, 2022年8月15日 – (亞太商訊) – 近期,德國弗勞恩霍夫系統與創新研究所(ISI) 發布一份研究報告,認為歐洲將受益於大眾汽車、Northvolt和ACC公司等企業的推動,未來三年歐洲電池產量將達到500GWh以上,到2030年將達到1.5TWh。這預示着歐洲的動力電池產業將被按下加速鍵。

國軒高科經開工廠二期產線

在此背景下,大眾汽車在德國薩爾茨吉特的電池工廠於當地時間7月8日破土動工,當日德國總理朔爾茨到場致辭。據悉,該項目前期相關投資即約為20億歐元(約141億元人民幣),建好後將成為大眾集團歐洲電池中心,為旗下的大眾、斯柯達和西雅特等汽車品牌生產電池。大眾還宣布,未來將與合作夥伴在電池領域投資超200億歐元(約204億美元),在歐洲建立6家電池工廠並擴大生產規模。由此,大眾汽車2030新能源戰略逐漸步入佳境。

值得一提的是,在7月8日大眾薩爾茨吉特電池工廠動工儀式上,國軒高科董事長李縝攜高管受邀現身,並與大眾首席技術官兼零部件公司CEO Thomas Schmall、大眾電池和系統負責人Frank Blome等,圍繞產品開發、工業化和供應鏈等話題進行了會議交流。這進一步做實了作為全球汽車巨頭的大眾,選擇與一家中國二線汽車動力電池企業深度捆綁的決心與信心。

UBS(瑞銀)在8月發布的一份研報中表示,大眾入股後,國軒加速了歐洲市場的擴張計劃。近期,國軒獨資的德國哥廷根工廠啟動改造,公司預期將於2023年投產首期3.5GWh動力電池產能,整個項目全面投產後動力電池產能將達18GWh。值得留意的是,國軒明確了將率先投產磷酸鐵鋰電池,瑞銀認為這或為歐洲車企帶來本地化、低成本的電池選擇方案,助力其快速切入歐洲車用電池市場。根據瑞銀預計,到2025年,大眾將成為公司的第一大客戶。考慮到公司諸多優勢,瑞銀將公司目標價格上調到了65元。較七月收盤價增長近七成。

早在2021年7月,國軒高科便與大眾汽車集團以線上籤約形式達成戰略合作框架協議。雙方決定共同推動大眾汽車集團薩爾茨吉特工廠的電池工業化生產,國軒將提供相應技術支持。除此以外,根據簽署的《關於電池戰略合作關係的諒解備忘錄》,雙方還將共同在歐洲打造從電池材料、電池產品到電池回收利用的全生命周期產業鏈。

國軒高科與大眾的正式合作始於2020年5月,當時,國軒高科向大眾中國定向發行30%的股份,同時,股東珠海國軒和實控人李縝向大眾中國轉讓5%股權。完成後,大眾中國將合計持有國軒高科4.4億股,占其總股本的26.47%,並成為第一大股東。

當時的市場分析認為,在全球前十大動力電池企業中,剔除體量過大的寧德時代、LG等企業,及具有競爭風險的比亞迪後,國軒高科是最符合大眾收購標的要求的動力電池企業。

彼時國軒高科已是中國第三大電池供應商,在電池研發、電芯化學成分等方面的研發能力方面相當出眾,從2019年的數據來看,國軒高科2019年磷酸鐵鋰裝機量為3GWh,市佔率為15.1%,位列全國第二。

對此,大眾方面給出的回答是:“國軒高科不光是中國第三大電池供應商,而且擁有強大的研發能力,特別是對於電動汽車市場至關重要的電池、電芯化學成分方面有着強大的研發能力。除此之外,他們對於電池的原材料供應鏈也有良好的把控。”

因此,大眾之所以青睞國軒,正是看中其在技術、研發、產能、上遊資源等方面過硬的綜合實力。

事實上,越是主流的汽車品牌對電池產品的性能質量的要求越高,因此會更傾向與行業頭部動力電池製造商合作,例如特斯拉旗下電動汽車的電池主要供應商就包括寧德時代、LG和松下,並在上周傳出了關於德產Model Y將搭載比亞迪刀片電池的消息。

2021年末,大眾戰投正式落地,包括2名大眾系高管也加入了國軒高科董事會,另有多位其他大眾關鍵管理人員加入國軒,分布在電池研發、生產製造、品質管控、財務管理、人力資源等多個領域,大眾正在以自己百年企業的管理經驗全面推動國軒在經營管理方面的變革與創新。

獲得大眾汽車加持後的國軒高科更是不負眾望,在產品輸出、技術輸出和資本輸出等方面,動作頻頻。今年6月,國軒高科在德國哥廷根基地舉行了基地揭牌儀式。哥廷根基地將着力於研發符合歐洲本土的新能源電池產品,目前規劃產能為 20GWh,其中第一期棕地工廠已啟動改造,預計今年年底前先期啟動 5GWh Pack產能投產。棕地工廠和綠地工廠計劃在 2025 年全部投產;阿根廷時間6月24日下午,阿根廷總統阿爾貝托·費爾南德斯(Alberto Fernández)在奧利沃斯的總統官邸會見了國軒高科董事長李縝一行,明確支持中資落地阿根廷,盛讚國軒高科的多項實業投資將推動阿根廷新能源產業發展。雙方還圍繞“雙碳”戰略、新能源汽車產業、《可持續交通法案》及國軒高科與美洲知名汽車零部件商Corven公司合資建立電動巴士電池計劃等話題進行了友好交流。 7月底,國軒高科作為中瑞證券市場互聯互通首批GDR上市企業成功在瑞交所掛牌,並以募資總額6.85億美元的規模,成為今年以來瑞士資本市場股權融資規模最大的項目。

此外,國軒高科通過在國內合肥廬江、宜春、烏海及在海外南美阿根廷等地的項目,逐步打通和布局了從“原材料—電池材料—電芯—電池系統—回收利用”的全產業鏈生態。公司方面稱,受益於全產業鏈體系建設,產能也將逐步釋放,2022年碳酸鋰預計產出8000噸左右,預計2023年將實現產出3萬噸左右,2025年實現碳酸鋰滿產產能12萬噸。2020年年中,國軒高科與大眾合作項目,年產30000噸高鎳三元正極材料項目正式落地安徽廬江。此舉也成為了電池企業與主機廠合作布局電池原材料的經典案例。目前年產3萬噸高鎳三元鋰電池正極材料項目正在抓緊施工,預計今年年底第一條年產1.5萬噸高鎳三元產線將投產,2023年全部建成投產。今年6月,國軒科宏年產20萬噸高端正極材料項目投產。這些布局未來或將為打造大眾標準電芯的供應鏈體系及國軒高科更為長遠的規劃打下堅實基礎。

大眾集團認為,專利電池技術將會是決勝未來移動出行領域的關鍵因素之一。到2030年,電力將成為大眾集團的核心競爭力。大眾稱未來將採用標準化電芯設計,覆蓋集團旗下80%的新能源車型,並在今年薩爾茨吉特工廠的動工儀式上,展示了結合方殼軟包特點的新一代標準電芯定義。

事實上最早就標準電芯與大眾展開實質性合作的電池公司就是國軒高科。公開信息顯示,國軒高科已取得大眾標準電芯正式量產定點,形態包括方形磷酸鐵鋰和三元,成為全球首個獲得大眾標準電芯定點的電池企業。據行業公開資訊,包括去年年末在安徽合肥新站區開工建設的年產50GWh項目,以及在合肥經開工廠二期項目,都在為未來供貨大眾作產能準備。目前經開工廠二期業已投產。據悉,6月20日國軒高科經開公司S3工廠日產15000隻電芯舉行了簡單的達產儀式,目前經開工廠二期項目進展順利,該項目未來主要客戶是大眾汽車。

除了設計和開發標準電芯外,國軒高科還將支持大眾歐洲的電池製造工藝和工廠的技術規劃。除目前的德國薩爾茨吉特工廠外,不排除大眾在歐洲的其他超級電池工廠也將獲得國軒高科的技術支持。而另據消息人士透露,短期內國軒還將迎來一位在供應鏈和生產管理方面經驗豐富的大眾高管,此舉或可加速標準電芯項目的推進和儘早供貨。

國際能源署(IEA)發布的一份報告預測,2030年全球動力電池需求量將從340GWh增至3500GWh。面對未來巨大的市場藍海,大眾對自身的新能源轉型已立下雄心壯志,而國軒高科是否能藉助大眾轉型機遇實現彎道超車,我們將拭目以待。


News URL: https://www.acnnewswire.com/press-release/simplifiedchinese/77085/

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