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滾動熊市新形態

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封面故事
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滾動熊市新形態

A.Intro :

恆大事件加上香港主要地產商,被告知“遊戲規則已經改變”,恆指周二(9月21日)最低跌至23,771點。及至22日晚上美股受惠議息結果維持利率,及每月買債規模不變,符合預,美股隔晚反彈,道指一度飆逾500點。

執筆之時(9月25日00:50am)道指仍升566點至34,824點,香港夜期仍跌90點至24,429點。港股近年對美股的關係是跟跌不跟升,觀其板塊輪流被轟,恐怕已成為大摩Michael Wilson口中的“滾動型熊市”。

B.主文:

中秋之後港股中興!?

相隔一個中秋節之後,港股表現判若兩市,照這樣看在下周三(9月29日)期結之前,恆指可以重返24,800至25,100水平。

觀乎周四(9月23日)港股表現,這也是北水回歸首日,恆指全日升289點或1.19%,收市報24,510點;恒生科指收報6,300點,升57點或0.93%;恒生國指收報8,733點,升93點或1.08%。大市成交額1,789.8億元,截至收盤,北水全日合計凈流出4.57億元,已連續兩個交易日小幅凈流出港股市場。

當中北水凈買入前五大股分別是:華潤電力(00836)凈買入7.7億元、騰訊控股(00700)凈買入6.8552億元、碧桂園服務(06098)凈買入2.57億元、中國電力(02380)凈買入2.35億元、長城汽車(02333)凈買入1.45億元。

滙豐(00005)當日升2.45%,收報39.75元;平保(02318)微升0.95%,收報53.1元;友邦(01299)則跌0.4%,收報88.4元。內銀股招行(03968)漲1.7%,收報58.65元;建行(00939)亦升1.5%,收報5.48元;郵儲行(01658)微跌0.95%,收報5.23元。
內房股今日大升,恆大(03333)全日飆17.6%,收報2.67元;碧桂園(02007)漲7.15%,收報7.64元;龍湖(00960)漲9.7%,收報34.5元。

滾動熊市 + 無北水…..

根據摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析師Michael Wilson兩年前注釋,所謂“滾動型熊市”,股市會累跌兩成,而且不能在12個月內完全收復跌市失地,可理解為“陰乾式下跌”或“慢熊”,即不是直插式大跌。

不過,香港最近對滾動熊市再有更立體、畫面化的描述,就是各個行業板塊輪流插水,具標緻性的行業龍頭輪流爆煲。

以近日恆大(03333)債務危機為例,引發港股出現洗倉潮,單從港股點數來看,上文提到的大市低位暫見23,771點,已重返2020年3月新冠疫情失控所引發全球股災的水平,亦意味着去年港股的升幅幾乎化為烏有,而部份股份更創出52周新低。

恆大風波持續發酵,拖累港股出現“火燒連環船”的局面,同屬內房股更是“風聲鶴唳”,富力(02777)、融創(01918)、花樣年(01777)及新力(02013),於本周紛紛傳出公司資金鏈出現問題,後者在開市急跌並傳出主席失聯而突然“停牌”,令市場不只聚焦於恆大身上。加上由於市場出現信心危機,基金更憂慮與內房股相關的股份,如內銀、保險、物管股等,也可能會因內房股“爆煲”受牽連,而出現恐慌式下跌。

又如香港住屋供應長期失衡,據悉中央早前會見本港主要地產商,告知“遊戲規則已經改變”,要求合作解決住宅短缺問題,不容許囤地、壟斷行為;雖此言論未經證實,但已促使在過去股價一向穏健的香港地產及收租股,出現“血洗”的情況。儘管部份地產商代表表示對此言論從未有所聞,令相關股價稍作反彈,但大市已是人心惶惶,始終投資者沒有水晶球,未能預測下一次會針對哪個板塊。

10月股災應跌不跌!?

圖標:

2016年股災,出現“黃色頭肩底””後爆升,目前亦形成了“白色頭肩底”,但相信要白圏所示的RSI跌穿30才識反彈吧。

除了面對美股轉弱,港股缺乏“水源”支持是另一隱憂。國慶長假將至,港股通交易於下周三(9月29日)又再暫停,是日剛好是期指結算,不排除恆指會重返25,000點水平,然後才再殺多次23,800點至24,200點水平為止,總之恆指5年日缐圖的RSI,一定要再跌穿30為止才叫真正見底。

過去中秋國慶都有資金炒作節日假期、餐飲、娛樂或高端消費概念股份。不過,內地面對疫情加強防疫措施,加上提倡共同富裕,經濟增長減速,地產市道及內地A股回落,都影響消費意欲。昨天A股復市,白酒、家電、餐飲旅遊、汽車等都在跌幅榜居前,而電力、煤炭、油氣等則受到追捧。港股的新能源、環保、資源股將趨好。

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