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岑智勇:恆大系停牌 恆指支持看23771.46

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恆大系停牌 恆指支持看23771.46

文:百利好証券策略師岑智勇

中國恆大(3333)及恆大物業(6666)股份在開市前停牌,影響投資市場氣氛。周一恆指低開低走,在10:11跌至23908.05點後轉趨牛皮,全日波幅 570.63點。恆指收報 24036.37點,跌 539.27點或2.19%,成交金額 1132.92億元。國指及恆科指亦跌逾2%。

恆指以陰燭收市,失守10 SMA,且曾創 9月23日以來低位,幸收亦水平仍能守在24000之上。MACD快慢線正差距收窄,走勢轉弱。全日上升股份 644隻,下跌 1094隻,整體市況偏弱。

市慱停牌中的合生創展(0754)擬以400億元收購恆大物業約51%股份。受消息帶動,部分內房及物管股向好,華潤置地(1109)及中國海外發展(0688)分別升 0.15%及0.56%;碧桂園服務(6098)及融創服務(1516)分別升 0.16%及3.85%。

停牌中的花樣年(1777)發公告,表示未能在10月4日(到期日)償還到期的優先票據,本金總額為5億美元,利率7.375厘,剩餘未償還本金額近2.06億美元。評級機構惠譽下調花樣年評級,由“B”下調至“CCC-”,並警告公司財務狀況存在不確定性,面臨無法償還約2億美元的國際債券的重大風險。惠譽指出,花樣年財務報告並無披露一筆由公司擔保的債券,並意味着公司的流動性狀況可能比惠譽之前預期更為緊張。惠譽引述花樣年管理層曾表示,除了1.5億美元的私人債券外,不存在其他資產負債表外的海外貸款。料消息對內房板塊的影響偏向負面。

默沙東上周五宣布治療新冠肺炎的口服藥物“molnupiravir ”將住院和死亡風險降低了50%,將在未來幾周內尋求FDA的緊急使用授權。受消息影響,一眾與新冠肺炎疫苗相關的股份急回軟,包括開拓葯業(9939)、康希諾生物(6185)、復星醫藥(2196)及葯明生物(2269)分別跌 25.55%、22.91%19.1%及8.62%。

中軟國際(0354)公告,擬配售1.62億股,每股作價12.26元,較上日收市價折讓9.85%。集資凈額約為19.7億元,擬用於:(i)約40%用於全棧雲智能產品、解決方案的研發、以及與主業相關的投資併購,進一步提升本公司技術能力,完善整體業務布局; (ii)約40%用於打造鴻蒙軟硬件產品、解決方案,研發原子化服務所需的全棧式技術,圍繞鴻蒙產業生態進行投資併購,成為鴻蒙生態領跑者;及(iii)約20%用於一般營運資金。從集資用途可見,不難想像集團與華為的關係密切。料消息偏向正面,宜留意其股價能否守在配股價之上。

美國債券息率上升,利淡三大指數表現。夜期及ADR下跌,料恆指走勢偏軟,支持參考為9月21日低位 23771.46點。

個股

超威動力(0951)的主要業務為從事鉛酸動力電池、鋰離子電池及其他相關產品的製造及銷售,產品主要應用於電動自行車、電動三輪車及特殊用途電動車等。

集團在2021年中期的總收入約為人民幣129.59億元,同比上升16.65%;毛利約為人民幣14.48億元,同比上升3.21%;整體毛利率約為11.2%,低於去年同期的12.6%。股東應占利潤約為人民幣3.005億元,同比下跌26.2%,減少的主要原因為金融資產公平值虧損導致其他收益及其他虧損錄得減幅所致。每股基本及攤薄盈利為人民幣0.27元,同比下跌27%。集團股價在業績後反覆回軟,估值漸見吸引。

集團近日股價向好,升穿10 SMA,並在金融科技系統出現信號。股份上日收報2.31元。集團市盈率在行業處行業處於偏低水平,若以4倍市盈率估值,目標價為3.1元。

-筆者為香港證監會持牌人士,不持有上述股份。

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