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郭思治:本月該有更大之波幅點於稍後才出現

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香港股票分析師協會副主席 - 郭思治

本月該有更大之波幅點於稍後才出現

大市昨先跌而後升,但整個反覆待變之形態未變,恆指昨先低開134點至23524點,其後曾略作拉鋸而低見23517點,惟由於未有追沽壓力,加上維穩買盤又開始滲著湧現,故整個大市卒在穩步中緩慢推上至23807點才漸受規限,而大市亦開始進入拉鋸之中,恆指最後報收23788點,較上日升130點,全日總成交金額為1475億元,從走勢上看,整個大市己漸升離11月30日之低位23175點,技術上該正處急跌後之正常反彈中,但前文己述,一日恆指仍未能成功重越10天線(24293點)並穩守其上之前,整個大市仍未算真正的回穩。

從技術上看,12月之大市己初呈先高而後低之形態,恆指暫是由1日之高位23864點跌至2日之低位23517點,即月內之波幅暫為347點,首先,一個月之高低位是不該同時出現於兩個交易日之內,加上347點之波幅亦該不能滿足月內之所需,故在本月中旬之前,理論上該有更大之波幅點出現,即會有更高或更低之指數出現,如屬更高,恆指該可伺機上破10天線(24293點),但如屬更低,則恆指可能會再次下試11月30日之低位23175點,甚至進一步下試去年9月25日之低位23124點。

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