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郭思治:本月该有更大之波幅点于稍后才出现

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香港股票分析师协会副主席 - 郭思治

本月该有更大之波幅点于稍后才出现

大市昨先跌而后升,但整个反复待变之形态未变,恒指昨先低开134点至23524点,其后曾略作拉锯而低见23517点,惟由于未有追沽压力,加上维稳买盘又开始渗著涌现,故整个大市卒在稳步中缓慢推上至23807点才渐受规限,而大市亦开始进入拉锯之中,恒指最后报收23788点,较上日升130点,全日总成交金额为1475亿元,从走势上看,整个大市己渐升离11月30日之低位23175点,技术上该正处急跌后之正常反弹中,但前文己述,一日恒指仍未能成功重越10天线(24293点)并稳守其上之前,整个大市仍未算真正的回稳。

从技术上看,12月之大市己初呈先高而后低之形态,恒指暂是由1日之高位23864点跌至2日之低位23517点,即月内之波幅暂为347点,首先,一个月之高低位是不该同时出现于两个交易日之内,加上347点之波幅亦该不能满足月内之所需,故在本月中旬之前,理论上该有更大之波幅点出现,即会有更高或更低之指数出现,如属更高,恒指该可伺机上破10天线(24293点),但如属更低,则恒指可能会再次下试11月30日之低位23175点,甚至进一步下试去年9月25日之低位23124点。

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