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岑智勇:美股投资者risk on 恒指阻力看 23500

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美股投资者risk on 恒指阻力看 23500

文:百利好証券策略师岑智勇

恒指在2021年全年仍要跌14%,跑输全球主要市场。周一恒指高开,一度重上23600水平后回软,并转升为跌。午后跌至 23192.19点后喘稳,全日波幅 411.84点。恒指收报 23274.75点,跌 122.92点或0.53%,成交金额 699.81亿元。国指及恒科指分别跌 0.58%及0.54%。三项指数都偏软,当中以国指走势相对较差。申洲国际(2313)在宁波生产基地因疫情而被封控,股价跌 7.81%,是表现最差的恒指成份股。

恒指单日转向,并失守20 SMA。MACD快慢线正差距扩阔,反映市况转佳,并与指数背驰。全日上升股份 824只,下跌 902只,整体市况偏弱。

中国恒大(3333) 停牌在开市前停牌,媒体报道引述文件指出,集团于海南省海花岛2号岛三(六)期项目所建设的39栋楼,因违法取得的规划许可证已被撤销,项目存在违反有关法律的情况,故被责令于10日内自行拆除相关违法建筑物。个别内房股亦偏软,其中融创中国(1918)及合景泰富(1813)分别跌 9.51%及5.69%。

印尼政府宣布1月禁止煤炭出口,消息带动煤炭股向好,兖州煤业(1171)、中国神华(1088)及中煤能源(1898)分别升4.9%、 2.08%及5.11%。

市场预期联储局今年可能早于预期加息,投资者减持国债,使国债孳息率上升。美股投资者似有risk-on的倾向,支持美股三大指数向好。夜期及ADR上升,料恒指可高开,若未能上破 23500水平,指数或会调头回软。港股通今天恢复,料大市交投会有所改善。另方面,财新中国将于9:45公布12月制造业PMI,料会成大市变数。

个股

中国铁建(1186)的主要业务为工程承包、勘察设计咨询、工业制造、房地产开发、物流与物资贸易及其他业务。

工银亚投基金公司、工银理财、工银国际投资、TFISP、铁建投资与铁建南投早前就成立合伙企业订立合伙协议,合伙企业规模为人民币140.01亿元,其中集团持87.34%股权的铁建投资出资人民币27.5亿元。合伙企业主要投资于中国铁建建设管理的基础设施类项目股权,但暂时未确定任何投资标的或进行任何投资。

合伙企业主要投资于高速公路等基础设施项目,与公司主要业务存在协同性,有利于推动产业发展、改善资产结构、拓宽盈利渠道,提高经营业绩和品牌知名度,符合公司战略,有利于保障公司及全体股东的利益。

集团近日股价向好,升穿50 SMA ,并在金融科技系统出现信号。股份上日收报5.18元,市盈率2.91倍,收益率 5.33%。集团市盈率在行业处行业偏低水平,若以3倍市盈率估值,目标价为5.34元。

-笔者为香港证监会持牌人士,不持有上述股份。

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