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岑智勇:美股四巫日下跌 夜期ADR背驰

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美股四巫日下跌 夜期ADR背驰

文:百利好証券策略师岑智勇

上周五恒指低开低走,全日波幅 305.08点。恒指收报 23192.63点,跌 282.87点或1.2%,成交金额 1626.12亿元,其中尾市录得近300亿成交,料是富时指数换码所致。国指及恒科指分别跌 1.58%及2.43%。数据反映科技股跌幅较大,拖低指数表现。

英伦银行议息后,决定加息0.15厘,指标利率由0.1厘的历史低位调高至0.25厘,购买资产规模维持8950亿英镑。受消息影响,汇控(0005)及渣打集团(2888)分别升2.77%及 2.28%;前者是表现较佳之蓝筹。

恒指以阴烛收市,最低跌至 23158.7点,仅守在12月16日低位 23155.62点之上。MACD快慢线负差距扩阔,走势转弱。全日上升股份 577只,下跌 1106只,整体市况偏弱。

兖州煤业(1171)发公告,指其主业仍为煤炭开采、煤化工等。集团近期制定的《发展战略纲要》,是对未来转型发展方向作出长期规划,由于并非短期 经营目标,能够实现存在较大的不确定性,产业发展目标所涉及的前 瞻性陈述,不构成公司对投资者的实质承诺。鉴于市场环境变化较快, 包括经济发展、产业政策、产品价格波动等多种决定性因素都存在客 观变化的可能,公司存在对战略纲要的内容进行适当调整的可能,敬 请投资者理解目标、预测与承诺之间的差异,并注意投资风险。当心兖州煤业在早前急升之后,或有调整压力。

上周五为美股的「四巫日」,即3、6、9、12月第3个星期五,个股期货、个股期权、指数期货、指数期权结算日子。投资者担心Omicron变种病毒疫情发展,以及全球开始进入加息周期,美股三大指数下跌。

夜期上升但ADR下跌,料恒指或低开,若能守在12月16日低位 23155.62点,指数有望反弹。

个股

中国宏桥集团(1378)的主要业务为在中国从事制造铝产品,包括液态铝合金、铝合金锭、铝合金铸轧产品及铝母线。

集团在2021年中期收入较去年同期增加约31.4%,约为人民币524.81亿元; 毛利较去年同期增加约143.3%,约为人民币157.36亿元;期内溢利较去年同期增加约200.4%,约为人民币84.24亿元。股东应占净利润较去年同期增加约187.5%,约为人民币81.43亿元; 每股基本盈利较去年同期增加约173.6%,约为人民币0.903元。

有大行指出,目前铝价可能处于“磨底”阶段。3到6个月来看,铝行业利润可能继续修复,春节后需求回暖仍然值得期待,届时铝进口盈利也有可能扩大;料集团也有望受惠。

集团近日股价向好,升穿50 SMA,并在金融科技系统出现信号。股份上日收报8.1元,市盈率5.59倍,周息率8.025%。集团市盈率在同业中处中间水平,若以6倍市盈率估值,目标价为8.7元。

-笔者为香港证监会持牌人士,不持有上述股份。

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