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岑智勇:中移动高估值回A 恒指支持看22665.25点

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中移动高估值回A 恒指支持看22665.25点

文:百利好証券策略师岑智勇

中国人民银行在周一9:30公布1年期贷款基础利率 (LPR)为3.8%,较上月3.85%下调,是人行近4年以来首次下调LPR;而5年期以上LPR维持在4.65%不变。周一恒指低开低走,午后最低跌至 22665.25点,创2020年5月26日以来低位后略反弹,全日波幅 480.05点。恒指收报 22744.86点,跌 447.77点或1.93%,成交金额 1247.82亿元。国指及恒科指分别跌 2.13%及2.3%。数据反映科指股走势较弱,其中京东集团 (9618)及阿里巴巴 (9988) 分别跌 4%及2.14%。

恒指呈2连阴走势,MACD快慢线负差距扩阔,走势转弱。全日上升股份 361只,下跌 1399只,整体市况偏弱。

人行下降LPR,个别内银股向好,青岛银行(3866)、江西银行(1916)、中行(3988)及农行(1288)分别升 6.33%、 2.48%、0.38%及0.36%。利率敏感的内房板块偏软,其中融创中国(1918)、佳兆业集团(1638)、中国恒大(3333)及世茂集团(0813)分别跌 17.74%、14.13%、9.88%及8.59%。

中国移动(0941)公告,经过上周四及周五完成向询价对象进行初步询价,其A股将按发行价格每股人民币57.58元发行8.46亿股人民币股份(行使超额配售选择权前)至9.73亿股人民币股份(若全额行使超额配售选择权)。是次A股发售,对应的2020年摊薄后市盈率为12.09倍(每股收益按照2020年度经会计师事务所依据中国会计准则审计的扣除非经常性损益前后孰低的归属于母公司股东净利润除以假设全额行使超额配售选择权时本次发行后公司已发行股份总数计算),低于同行业可比上市公司2020年平均静态市盈率,低于中证指数有限公司发布的“电信、广播电视和卫星传输服务(I63)”最近一个月平均静态市盈率22.78倍。中国移动香港上市股份的市盈率为7.415倍,上日收报46.35元,估值较A股为低。参考其他「回A」案例,当心香港上市中移动股价或会受压。

投资者担心Omicron变种新冠病毒疫情扩大,加上美国民主党参议员曼钦表明不支持总统拜登提出的社会开支法案,令法案能否获得通过出现变数;叠加高盛随即调低美国明年经济增长预测,利淡美股三大指数表现。

夜期及ADR下跌,料恒指或低开,支持参考为昨天低位22665.25点。若能守在此水平之上,指数有望反弹。

个股

远东发展(0035)的主要业务为从事物业发展、物业投资、酒店业务及管理、停车场业务及设施管理、博彩及相关业务、证券与金融产品投资,以及提供按揭服务。

集团在截至2021年9月底止中期之综合收益约为31亿元,同比轻微上升0.3%,主要受(i)物业发展之收益下跌及(ii)酒店、停车场及博彩业务复苏推动,同时其他业务也出现复苏。扣除酒店及停车场资产折旧前的经调整毛利为12亿元,与去年相若。除税前溢利为港币13.85亿元,同比上升6.8%;股东应占溢利净额及经调整现金溢利分别按年上升206.3%及186.3%至10.71亿元及8.36亿元,原因是集团表现回升。

集团近日股价向好,升穿10 SMA,并在金融科技系统出现信号。股份上日收报2.61元,市盈率11.382倍,周息率7.28%。集团市盈率在同业中处中间偏高水平,若以12倍市盈率估值,目标价为2.75元。

-笔者为香港证监会持牌人士,不持有上述股份。

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