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岑智勇:夜期ADR背馳 恆指或出現獲利回吐

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夜期ADR背馳 恆指或出現獲利回吐

文:百利好証券策略師岑智勇

受惠於人行降準及有美國傳染病專家估計Omicron威脅或不及Delta變種,周二恆指高開後,早段回軟至23512.5點後反彈。中國11月貿易帳為717.2億元,低於市場預期的827.5億元,也低於上月的845.4億元。11月出口年率為22%,高於市場預期;同月進口年率為31.7%,高於市場預期。數據公布後,恆指走勢反覆向好,並以近高位收市,全日波幅 477.28點。恆指收報 23983.66點,升 634.28點或2.72%,成交金額 1534.47億元。國指及恆科指分別升 3.05%及4.21%。數據反映升勢主要由科技股帶動,其中阿里巴巴(9988)及美團(3690)分別升 12.25%及5.77%。

恆指以陽燭收市,收市水平升穿10 SMA,是11月19日以來首次。MACD快慢線負差距收窄,走勢改善。若後市續向好,有機會由熊差轉牛差。全日上升股份 1164隻,下跌 569隻,整體市況向好。

中國中共中央政治局會議強調,明年經濟工作要穩字當頭、穩中求進。實施好擴大內需戰略,促進消費持續恢復,積極擴大有效投資,增強發展內生動力。要推進保障性住房建設,支持商品房市場更好滿足購房者的合理住房需求,促進房地產業健康發展和良性循環。受消息影響,個別內房股向好,融創中國(1918)、中國奧園(3883)及合景泰富(1813)分別跌 16.84%、12.8%及10.32%。

融創中國公布,在2021年10月29日(紐約時間)至2021年12月7日(紐約時間)期間,累計出售約 2,671.3 萬股貝殼美國存托股票 (ADS),相當於約 8,014.0 萬股貝殼 A 類普通股,總代價約為 5.30 億美元,資金用作一般營運資金。集團預期出售事項將於2021年度錄得稅前虧損約人民幣 56.3 億元,此乃參照出售股票列示於集團截至2020年12月31日止年度財務報表內的賬麵價值計算而來。集團持有貝殼已逾四年,出售股票實現稅前溢利約人民幣 17.6 億元。料消息偏向正面,有助改善財務狀況。

投資者對新冠變種病毒Omicron的憂慮降溫,美股三大指數向好,納指更升逾3%。夜期上升但ADR回軟,兩者背馳,料恆指在急升之後,或會出現獲利回吐,走勢趨淡。

個股

中國鐵建(1186)的主要業務為主要從事建築工程承包、勘察設計及諮詢、物流貿易、工業製造、房地產開發業務。

截至2021年第三季度末,集團實現營業收入人民幣7354.75億元,同比下跌17.86%;實現公司股東凈利潤人民幣178.72億元,同比下跌20.12%。期內新簽合同總額15663.428億元,為年度計劃的57.27%,同比增長12.64%。其中,境內業務新簽合同額14530.984億元,佔新簽合同總額的92.77%,同比增長13.52%;境外業務新簽合同額1132.444億元,佔新簽合同總額的7.23%,同比增長2.41%。期內未完合同額合計45009.750億元,同比增長22.86%。其中,境內業務未完合同額合計36,299.418億元,佔未完合同總額的80.65%;境外業務未完合同額合計8,710.332億元,佔未完合同總額的19.35%。

集團近日股價向好,升穿50 SMA 及100 SMA ,並在金融科技系統出現信號。股份上日收報5.11元,市盈率2.871倍,收益率 5.403%。集團市盈率在行業處行業偏低水平,若以3倍市盈率估值,目標價為5.34元。

-筆者為香港證監會持牌人士,不持有上述股份。

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