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2022年7月21日 10時39分

拖租救市?

香港, 2022年7月21日 – (亞太商訊) – 香港理工大學工商管理博士舊生會有限公司(「DBAAA」)今日公布有關香港特別行政區政府(「政府」)《商業租戶短期保護措施(2019冠狀病毒病疫情)條例》的研究及網上調查結果。根據調查結果,DBAAA支持政府在預期利率會上升時,不延長該保護措施。

根據最近許多其他國家採取的類似緩解措施的研究,有經營能力的商業租戶可以受益於該等緩解措施,使他們能夠在冠狀病毒病疫情的短期財務危機中生存下來。然而,如果保護措施延長超越原定期限之後,從長遠來看,將不可避免地造成房地產市場的低效。對沒有業務前境的租戶的支持可能會阻礙資源分配給業務前境理想的租戶,並限制生產力的增長,保護措施可能會阻礙新商業經營者進入市場,並降低更高效率租戶的競爭力。許多研究顯示,市場的自行調節和反應比預期要快得多,不少業主願意為他們忠誠的租戶提供他們在困難時期迫切需要的實質性緩解。事實上,低利率是企業生存能力提高的原因,而不是貸款延期。

這項調查的目的是要了解會員及其同行對政府頒布的商業租戶短期保護措施有何反應。收到了90多個有效的回復,主要發現如下:

1. 超過80%的受訪者的業務在過去6個月裡面對了困難。
2. 只有5.6%的被訪者認為商業租戶短期保護措施會大大達致目標,而45.6%的被訪者認為只會在一定程度上達致目標。事實上,約有四成受訪者因此對香港不同範疇失去信心,其中「宏觀經濟環境 」的最多,而「稅務及成本競爭力」的最少。
3. 只有約四分之一的受訪者認為「三個月 」及「指定行業」是適當的。 18.9%的受訪者認為「三個月」太長或太短。約三分之一的受訪者對此不予置評。
4. 加入「豁免(業主與租客重新談判租約)」和「延期徵收差餉」的緩解措施只促使約四成受訪者支持該暫停商業追租條例,「免息租金貸款」的效果更差。超過三成的受訪者表示,上述措施並沒有改變他們對暫停商業追租條例的看法。
5. 約有一半的受訪者認為暫停商業追租條例可達致目標,然而,超過三分之一的受訪者認為這是行不通的。
6. 只有一小部分被訪者會對他們的租賃安排採取激烈行動。有超過四成的受訪者表示,由於暫停商業追租條例,他們會增加對商業物業的投資。

為防止大量商業機構倒閉及嚴重失業,政府推出暫停商業追租措施,應會受到議價能力較弱的中小企業租戶的歡迎。雖然如此,租賃延期計劃被認為是無效的,主要是因為業主和租客在更早的時候就開始重新談判租金,這也解釋了為什麼商業地產市場的生產力不會受到嚴重影響。不過,當預期利率會上升時,不建議延長拖租期間,因為這勢必會對房地產市場和銀行業構成嚴重威脅,進而衝擊香港的經濟穩定性。相反,政策制定者可以交由市場進行有效的自我調節。

理工大學工商管理博士課程總監兼是次研究榮譽顧問唐憲生教授表示:「暫停商業追租措施實際上是把商業風險從租客轉移到業主身上,業主可再將風險轉嫁給銀行。但是,相對於應該擁有更多信息的市場,政府很難判斷誰更有能力承擔風險。但當市場缺乏效率,甚至扭曲到不能自我糾正的時候,政府就應該介入以減少連鎖反應。暫停商業追租措施可以被視為一種債務重組行為,幫助商業租戶爭取時間,以避免大規模倒閉和裁員。」

DBAAA 榮譽司庫兼研究召集人傅振煌博士說:「調查結果反映了一種普遍看法,即市場會以更快、更有效的方式做出反應。例如,業主願意為值得信賴的租客減租,以助他們渡過難關,令強制暫停商業追租措施失效。然而,政府已向市場發出強烈的訊息,即整個社會需要更包容,以克服新冠疫情帶來的經濟下滑。」

我們亦希望政府注意暫停追租措施可能帶來的副作用。例如,業主可能會考慮在未來的租賃續期中收取租金溢價,因為他們預計立法措施可能會妨礙他們行使合法權利,例如提前終止租約。此外,欠缺業務前景的業戶勉強經營的時間越長,他們承受的經濟損失就越大。將租金推遲三個月,可能會讓中小企業租戶誤以為業務會很快好轉。中小企業經營者通常在預測未知情況方面並不那麼老練,在減少損失方面也未必足夠果斷。

DBAAA主席鍾少權博士說: 「我們希望政府注意,在嚴重的通貨膨脹和活躍的利率對沖活動下,美聯儲局積極和持續的加息可能會導致香港的利率大幅上升。很有可能,這些苦苦掙扎的商業租戶在即近可見的將來便會遇到更大危險。我們支持政府的堅定承諾,即不將該暫停商業追租措施延長至原定三個月期限以外。」

更多關於《商業租戶短期保護措施(2019冠狀病毒病疫情)條例》的網上調查的資料: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VnGWqoze3KCBirV-4lAnrvz7LsVqL4i_/view?usp=sharing

關於香港理工大學工商管理博士舊生會有限公司(「DBAAA」)
香港理工大學工商管理博士舊生會於二零零零年成立,旨在聯繫理工大學工商管理博士學位各屆畢業生和關係維護,同時鼓勵會員們作持續專業發展。DBAAA的成員匯聚了二十五屆博士畢業生,共同組成一個跨背景、行業及地域的龐大網絡。DBAAA現時共有190位會員。

香港理工大學工商管理博士學位課程致力於培育學術型領袖,並以跨領域學術研究兼具高度實踐性著稱,被視為資深管理人員應具有的最高學術成就之一。工商管理博士學位課程於一九九六年設立,畢業生多為舉足輕重的商界領導,當中不乏DBAAA成員。

媒體垂詢
縱橫公共關係顧問集團
陳練
電話: +852 2527 0490
電郵: brenda.chan@sprg.com.hk

香港理工大學工商管理博士舊生會有限公司
傅振煌博士
網址: http://polyudbaaa.com/
電郵: admin.dbaaa@polyu.edu.hk


News URL: https://www.acnnewswire.com/press-release/simplifiedchinese/76613/

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