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王榮旭:傳產股狂歡,誰接棒?

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傳產股狂歡,誰接棒?

◎王榮旭 CSIA/CFTA

大盤站穩萬七後不斷創高,電子、傳產、金融輪流表態,先前我看好金融股將成為本波推升指數的要角,不外乎金融股今年基本面相當強,擁有低本益比、低股價淨值比、高殖利率的特性,其中壽險股獲利亮眼,在全球指數創高下,持有的國內外有價證券投資利得,以及受惠台幣升值下得不動產潛在處分利益,富邦金(2881.TW)目前淨值達66.33元,今年Q1獲利4.89元,股價衝到64.3元將挑戰2015年高點69元,國泰金(2882.TW)淨值60.74元,Q1獲利4.32元緊追在後,股價落後富邦金,其中中壽(2823.TW)股價更低估,今年Q1賺2.08元,且每股淨值高達37.97元,但股價只有20.65元;證券股受惠台股交易量放大,龍頭股元大金(2885.TW)Q1獲利0.78元,旗下元大證券3月大賺30億,股價緩步墊高衝到26.65元,宏遠證(6015.TW)股性較為活潑,今年Q1獲利0.93元也衝到23.3元,同時擁有「金控、壽險、證券」的開發金(2883.TW)值得留意,今年Q1獲利0.66元,光是第一季就快追上去年全年獲利0.87元,股價只有13.5元,全年獲利預估可達1至1.5元,以目前股價來看本益比仍低。

原物料受惠漲價及需求暢旺

傳產原物料大漲也是因為今年獲利爆發,鋼鐵股中鴻(2014.TW)受惠原料鐵礦砂價格持續飆高,加上BDI指數持續上升,以及中美兩大國對於基礎建設推動,今年鋼鐵需求將持續旺。中國推動「碳中和」政策,許多當地鋼鐵廠因排放二氧化碳不符合標準遭要求減產,未來鋼鐵業供給將大幅下滑,原料加上運價上漲,面對鋼鐵需求上升,中國鋼鐵廠還減產下,估計下半年鋼鐵價格將易漲難跌,中鴻Q1財報好,5、6月鋼價亦調漲,全年獲利挑戰3.5元,即使我推介後已經大漲翻倍,行情還是欲罷不能,塑化股PVC與SM報價續漲,華夏(1305.TW)Q1 EPS約1.5元,全年EPS預估5元以上,本益比仍不到10倍,國喬(1312.TW)Q1獲利和華夏相當,股價更低估只有32.1元,今年獲利看好可達5元水準,整體本益比仍相對低,只要跌就有資金承接。

環泥Q1淡季不淡,3月營收創歷史新高

水泥是原物料股中漲幅相對落的,但台泥、亞泥近期補漲創波段新高,二線水泥股漲勢更兇,嘉泥(1103.TW)去年Q4認列桃園蘆竹土地處分利益,全年EPS達2.74元,三月股價不到20元,短短一個月時間衝到28.15元,相比之下環泥(1104.TW)股價更低估只有26.4元, 3月營收5.75億再寫歷史新高,受惠南科廠辦建案增加帶動預拌混凝土需求,業外轉投資六和機械,在汽車產業景氣回溫後,今年Q1已轉虧為盈開始挹注獲利,以及持有高雄土地達25萬坪,受惠台幣升值潛在利益大,去年EPS1.9元,今年EPS上看 2.5至3 元,本益比約僅 10 倍,目前股價仍低於淨值28.5元,值得留意。

圖說
環泥(1104.TW)日線圖
看好理由:
1.預拌混凝土需求暢旺,3月營收創歷史新高
2.持有高雄土地達25萬坪,潛在利益大
3.轉投資六和機械Q1轉虧為盈

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