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X軍團-期指股票研究院:債務上限會議9月30出爐 襯避險派支撐美匯 精明放眼黃金

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FB : X軍團-期指股票研究院
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債務上限會議9月30出爐 襯避險派支撐美匯 精明放眼黃金

上周主要行情

上周美匯開盤93.23,高位93.53,低位92.97,收盤報93.33。

美聯儲在本周結束的FOMC上維持政策不變及暗示最快將於11月減少買債規模,市場隨即關注本月30日的債務上限會議,現時兩黨對立局勢升溫,互不相讓,參議院共和黨人封殺了民主黨調升債務限制的法案。兩黨政策中心上周估計,若不調高債務上限,美國政府最快會在10月中違約。FED官員和美國財長耶倫均警告,未能上調債務上限,將有“災難性後果”,市場可能會有“極端”反應。

下周留意事項

基本上整個市場重點都放在債務上限會議上,作為全球最大的債仔,美國只要肯借,外面好息之人一定賣帳,變相美國從來都擁有一張無上限信用卡一樣,關係到違約風波條件下,最終通過機會極大,這個舉動看似會影響美元加息但實則收水早就預計好在年尾至出年發生,所謂過了海就神仙,已經有足夠前因去準備短炒一波黃金。

另外要留意周二、三均有鮑威爾發言,周四GDP第二季季環比以及初請失業金人數,上周市場跌眼鏡下近期首次增長,所以今次數據更關係未來走勢。

XAU/USD走勢預測
日線圖區間頂明顯在1,830元,至於區間底可以觀察1,730元位置,如果見明顯支持可以建倉,由於比較兩次觸及1,830元時反應見下行力度減弱,所以第一個食糊位望1,830元之外,更可留一手上望1,865元。

XAU/USD
好淡分水:$1,740
下方支持: $1,719/ $1,680
上方阻力:$1,830 / $1,865

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