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安信國際證券–房地產行業:成熟投資性物業帶來強勁現金流【行業研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

遏制樓價上漲,並加快建立促進房產市場平穩健康發展的長效機制已成內房的主要基調,在樓市調控的大環境下,發展商的資金壓力愈來愈大,市場亦加重對發展商融資風險的關注。大型房企依靠銷售回款和高周轉依然能維持下去,其中華潤置地及龍湖集團擁有穩健的資產負債表、優質的土儲及成熟的投資物業組合,我們認為在內房的逆境中,將會跑贏行業。

報告摘要:

維持較低槓桿比率。華潤及龍湖一直都以健康穩健的資產負債表見稱,截至6 月30 日,兩家公司的凈槓桿比率分別是52%及55%,低於行業平均數。華潤2018-19 年到期的債務約350 億元(人民幣·下同)佔總額之24%,遠低於手頭現金約610 億元;龍湖方面,短期債務約130 億元,佔總額之12%,手頭現金約420 億元。兩家公司的平均利息成本約4.5%,低於同業水平。

優質土儲布局。經歷多年發展,兩家公司均已在全國主要地區布局土儲,從城市分布來看,華潤在華南、長三角及環渤海比較深根,會滲透入三線熱點城市如惠州、南寧、蘇州、煙台等。而在中西部核心區及東北三省的土儲, 主要為省會級二線城市。華潤首七個月的銷售額約1160 億元,同比增長56%, 全年目標維持1830 億元,相當於約全年同比增長20%。而龍湖的土儲則較多在環渤海及西南地區,佔總建面約65%。在城市布局上,除了江浙兩省和海西地區會打入強三線城市外,其他地區的土儲主要位處於省會二線城市中。龍湖首七個月總銷售額約1,140 億元,同比增長約10%。雖然上半年銷售增長受工程周期影響推盤,但管理層表示下半年加快節奏,並維持全年目標2000 億元,相當於約全年同比增長30%。

成熟投資物業組合帶來強勁經常性收入。我們喜歡華潤及龍湖的最主要原因是公司分別擁有以萬象城及天街為首的成熟投資性物業組合,為其帶來充裕的可再生現金流。截至6 月30 日,華潤在營運28 個萬象城,加上辦公樓等其他投資物業,上半年的租金及管理營運收入約20 億元,差不多能全覆蓋其利息支出。按計劃,華潤在2020 年將營運超過70 個萬象城,租金收入預計達100 億元。而龍湖上半年的租金營運收入約17 億元,也是差不多全覆蓋利息支出。龍湖天街計劃由2018 年的29 個,增加至2020 年的53 個,相對應的租金收入達60 億元。兩家公司是內房中少數單靠租金及管理營運收入就足以覆蓋其利息支出,強勁的現金牛是公司最大的安全網。

投資建議:

截至6 月30 日,華潤及龍湖未結轉的銷售總額分別約2,200 億元及2,060 億元,預計毛利分別超過35%及30%,將於未來兩年陸逐結轉入賬,鎖定利潤。兩家公司現價分別約8 倍及9 倍2018 年市盈率,低於其歷史平均值,估值不算過高。

風險提示:

i) 銀根緊縮影響銷售;ii)個別城市樓市調控力度上升

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