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群益證券(香港)–五糧液:業績持續高增長,維持買入【公司研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

結論與建議:

公司上半年實現營收214.2億,同比增37%,實現凈利潤71億,同比增43%,綜合毛利率為72.84%,同比上升1.19個百分點,二季度實現營收75億,同比增37.7%,凈利潤21.4億,同比增55.2%,綜合毛利率為72.2%,同比下降1.5個百分點。公司上半年業績情況略好於此前公布的經營資料。

報告期酒類業務營收202.5億,同比增37%,毛利率達76.53%,同比上升1.29%,酒類業務持續高速增長推測應受益量價齊升。另一方面,公司2Q末預收款為44.19億,環比下降13.53億,降幅為23%,屬於季節性正常回落。

費用端,報告期公司控制嚴格,使公司費用率明顯下降,由去年同期18.07%下降至13.12%,同比下降4.95個百分點,對業績貢獻顯著。2Q費用率為19.63%,同比下降5.25個百分點。

此外,報告期公司經營活動的現金流凈額大幅下降81%,主要受銀行承兌匯票增加以及支付的各項稅費和採購商品支付的現金增加影響,公司應收票據同比增47%,由銀行承兌因此回款風險較小,無需過於擔憂;稅費方面,由於2017年5月1日起公司消費稅稅基提升,公司消費稅支出增加使稅金同比增112%,下半年稅基變動影響消弭,稅費變動對業績的影響將減小。

此前公司於6月23日起應新品五糧液訂單量已超全年計畫量而暫停接受新訂單,管道庫存清理順暢,普五一批價回升。目前,中秋、國慶雙節臨近,以行業來看,名優白酒終端銷售依舊火爆,行業景氣仍在持續。下半年旺季來臨,品牌效應驅動下,公司業績預計仍能保持較快增長。

綜上,維持此前盈利預測,預計2018-2019年公司將分別實現凈利潤127億和158億,同比增31%和25%,EPS分別為3.34元和4.16元,當前股價對應PE分別為20倍和16倍。當前板塊調整使行業估值回落,公司估值吸引力提升,維持買入投資建議。

風險提示:行業景氣下降,食品安全問題

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