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群益證券(香港)–金風科技:風電開發業務搶眼,在手訂單刷新歷史記錄【公司研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

結論與建議:

公司發布2018半年報,上半年實現收入110.30億元,同比增長12.10%,歸母凈利潤15.30億元,同比增長35.05%,略超預期。上半年綜合毛利率31.18%,同比下降1pct,三費佔比同比下降5.72pct,其中銷售費用下降較快,同比下降25%。

預計公司18-19年分別實現凈利潤36.98億元(YOY+21.07%)、41.51億元(YOY+12.25%),EPS1.04、1.23元,當前A 股價對應18-19年動態PE 為12.4X、11X,H 股股價對應18-19年動態PE7.4X、6.3X,風電行業整體出現回暖,但鑒於風電競價政策不確定性,暫給予“持有”建議。

風機毛利率承壓,風場開發表現搶眼:分業務來看,風機及零部件銷售同比增長9.8%,但受到原材料漲價以及風機價格下降的影響,毛利率承壓,上半年毛利率21.09%,同比下降4.42pct。風電場開發業務同比增長21.62%,受益於棄風限電情況好轉以及公司內部管理能力提升,毛利率提升5.9pct。整體來看公司毛利率維持穩定,17年綜合費用率增加2.74pct,主要是研發投入及存量風電場導致財務費用增加,未來費用率有望保持此水平。

風機價格有望企穩,在手訂單刷新歷史記錄:公司上半年對外銷售容量2094MW,同比提升11.7%,其中2.0MW 機型作為主流機型,上半年銷售容量達1528MW,同比提升117.05%,佔總容量比73%。2.0MW 機組投標均價為3250元/KW,近三個月來環比降速已從3.82%下降至0.55%,有望企穩回升。目前公司在手外部訂單合計17.5GW,同增16.2%,持續刷新歷史記錄,另外還有1155MW 內部訂單,來自於國內外自營風電。

風場業務效率提升,貢獻四成毛利:上半年公司風場業務實現毛利14.50億,同增33%,佔總毛利的42.16%,主要受益於裝機容量以及利用小時的雙升。目前公司風電場權益裝機容量4033MW,新增裝機165.5MW,同比提升86.8%,增量主要來自於消納較好的華東地區。同時,西北限電情況改善,華東項目投運,利用小時數增加205小時至1184小時,優於行業增加159小時的情況。

105GW 存量市場充足,未來競價利好高效風機:5月國家能源局出台“競價上網”政策引發市場憂慮,目前非競價風電市場空間充足,截止6月底有57.3GW 已核准未建設容量、32.68GW18年新增建設規劃、7GW18年新增大型風電基地建設方案以及7.79億2018-2020年分散式建設規劃,共計105GW 容量不受競價政策影響。同時,競價政策更加關注度電成本而非風機價格,對風機的發電量和運行效率要求更高,長期利好龍頭風機企業。

盈利預測:預計公司18-19年分別實現凈利潤36.98億元(YOY+21.07%)、41.51億元(YOY+12.25%),EPS1.04、1.23元,當前A 股價對應18-19年動態PE 為12.4X、11X,H 股股價對應18-19年動態PE7.4X、6.3X,風電行業整體出現回暖,但鑒於風電競價政策不確定性,暫給予“持有”建議。

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