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群益證券(香港)–中國神華:18年上半年業績小幅下滑,全年商品煤產量有望正增長【公司研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

公司發布上半年業績公告,公司上半年實現營業收入1274億元,yoy+5.7%,錄得歸母凈利潤230億元,yoy-5.5%,摺合每股收益為1.155元。

其中二季度實現營業收入644億元,yoy+8.3%,錄得歸母凈利潤113億元,yoy-6.1%,業績符合預期。供給側改革、安全檢查等多因素影響,煤炭價格有望高位運行,加上哈爾烏素露天礦逐步恢復生產,公司全年煤炭產量有望正增長,因此判斷公司全年業績穩增長,結合當前公司估值低,維持“買入”評級。

多個因素疊加,導致上半年業績下滑:公司上半年業績下滑主要由以下幾個方面引起:一是公司商品煤產量下降,外購煤佔比提高致煤炭銷售成本增加,使得權益佔比最大的煤炭分部經營收益下降;二是發電分部利潤佔比上升,但其少數股東權益佔比較高,上半年少數股東權益率同比增加3.1 個百分點至18.0%;三是享受優惠稅率較多的煤炭分部利潤佔比下降,享受優惠稅率較少的發電分部利潤佔比上升,上半年所得稅費用率同比增加3.4 個百分點至23.6%。另外投資收益同比減少5.8 億元,降幅64.3%、營業外收入同比減少7.4 億元,降幅68.8%,在一定程度上對公司業績增長起到負面影響。

商品煤產量同比減少,成本上升致煤炭分部業績下滑:公司上半年商品煤產量為145.8 百萬噸,同比減少3.9%,主要是哈爾烏素露天礦煤炭產出大幅減少所致。上半年公司商品煤銷量共計225.3 百萬噸,同比增加2.2%,其中外購煤銷量為79.8 百萬噸,同比增加26.7%。上半年煤炭平均售價為432 元/噸,同比上漲1.6%。成本較高的外購煤比例提升,疊加公司煤炭生產成本同比上升6.3%,使得煤炭分部毛利率同比下滑1.9 百分點至28.8%,煤炭分部實現經營收益216.5 億元,同比下降3.4%。

售電量、電價齊上升,發電分部盈利能力增強:上半年全社會用電量同比增長9.4%,受此影響公司燃煤機組平均利用小時為2364 小時,同比增加7.6%,使得公司上半年實現總發電量133.6 十億千瓦時,同比增加9.5%,總售電量125.4 十億千萬時,同比增加9.6%。在電價方面,公司上半年平均售電價為312 元/兆瓦時,同比上漲1.6%。受售電量增加攤薄固定成本影響,平均售電成本同比下降2.2%至256.4 元/兆瓦時。售價上漲,成本下降,發電分部毛利率同比提高3.9 個百分點至20.8%,分部實現經營收益53.9 億元,同比增長66.6%。

運輸及煤化工分部穩定增長:上半年公司自有鐵路運輸周轉量為138.6十億噸公里,同比增長1.6%,港口下水煤量129.5 百萬噸,同比下降1.7%,航運貨運量51.6 百萬噸,同比增長12.2%。對應各板塊實現經營收益為88.3、14.2、4.5 億元,同比分別增長7.6%、8.3%、67%。煤化工分部,上半年公司銷售聚乙烯、聚丙烯17.2、16.0 萬噸,同比下降0.1%、5.9%,對應銷售均價為7509、6997 元/噸,同比分別上漲0.7%、10.1%,毛利率同比提升1.7 個百分點至22.4%,實現經營收益3.4 億元,同比增長6.0%。

下半年煤價高位運行概率大,公司商品煤產量將有所增加:供給側改革仍在繼續,18 年煤炭去產能目標為1.5 億噸,這將進一步改善煤炭供給關係,煤、電企業長協合同佔比提升、以及煤炭最低庫存和最高庫存制度等政策的落實,都將促進煤炭價格趨於穩定。另外,8 月下旬至9 月下旬國家煤礦安監局將派出6 個督查組,對12 個省(區)開展煤礦安全生產督查,勢必會短期影響煤炭供給。從公司7 月份經營數據來看,單月商品煤產量為24.7 百萬噸,同比上漲6.0%,上年8 月份哈爾烏素露天礦公告減停產而當前該礦已經逐漸恢復生產,兩相對比,下半年公司煤炭產量因此將有望恢復正增長。

盈利預測:我們預計公司2018/2019 年實現凈利潤470/488 億元,yoy+4.5%/+3.7%,摺合EPS 為2.36/2.45 元,目前A 股股價對應的PE 為8.3、8.0 倍, 對應的PB 為1.12、0.99 倍,H 股股價對應的PE 為6.5、6.3 倍,對應的PB 為0.88、0.77 倍。鑒於公司估值較低,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:1、煤炭價格大幅下跌;2、發電站利用小時數大幅下滑;

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