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群益證券(香港)–九州通:營收結構不斷優化,實際凈利快速增長【公司研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

公司業績:公司2018H1實現營收424.5億元,YOY+17.2%,錄得凈利潤5.4億元,YOY-32.3%,但由於去年同期獲得漢陽地塊舊城改造徵收補償款5.3億元,幷且今年上半年股權激勵費用較去年同期增加0.6億元,扣除這些影響因素後,公司實際凈利潤YOY+30%,符合預期。公司Q2單季實現營收202.4億元,YOY+16.2%,錄得凈利潤3.2億元,YOY-48.1%.扣非後實際YOY+20.5%。在“兩票制”推進中,公司營收及實際凈利潤增速處於行業前列。

營收結構不斷優化:分業務來看:

(1)由於公司積極拓展高端醫院及基層醫療機構,純銷業務實現營收135億元,YOY+30.6%,其中二級及以上醫院營收YOY+23%,基層醫療機構業務則受益於分級診療政策,營收YOY+47%;

(2)零售藥店批發業務受益於營改增等政策市場份額不斷擴大,實現營收110億元,YOY+38.7%;

(3)調撥業務受兩票制政策影響實現營收150億元,YOY-2.6%;

(4)公司好藥師零售連鎖業務實現營收10億元,YOY+18.2%。整體來看,公司營收結構不斷優化,更加符合兩票制營改增及分級診療的政策的發展方向,預計公司營收將會繼續保持較快增長。

毛利率同比持平,銷售費用率略有增加:公司零售業務毛利率同比微增,但由於醫藥工業毛利率略有下降,整體來看,公司綜合毛利率為8.1%,同比持平。由於公司積極拓展高端醫院以及基層醫療機構純銷業務,銷售費用率同比增加0.3個百分點至3.2%;股權激勵費用攤銷增加,公司管理費用率同比增加0.1個百分點至2.2%;財務費用率同比下降0.2個百分點。整體來看,公司期間費用率同比增加0.2個百分點之6.2%。

盈利預計:我們預計公司2018/2019年分別實現凈利潤13.55億元/17.14億元,分別同比-6.3%/+26.5%(扣非後分別+28%/+26%),EPS 分別為0.72元/0.91元,對應PE 分別為21倍/17倍。公司純銷、基層配送業務以及終端直配業務預計將會保持快速發展,目前估值合理,維持“買入”的投資評級。

風險提示:醫藥政策改變;利率上行

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