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申萬證券(香港)–Oil &Gas:Sector outlook【行業研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

華油能源(01251:HK-買入)與安東油田服務(03337:HK-買入)上周領跌香港油服板塊,我們將板塊的顯著回撤歸因於投資者對油價波動的過度反應與市場震蕩加劇下的流動性缺失。雖然油服企業股票表現不佳,但在當下油價水平下,我們觀察到油服企業基本面依舊積極向好,在手訂單充盈,未來業績增長可見性強,存在顯著預期差。因此,我們重申對油服行業的積極觀點並維持超配評級。

油價基本面趨勢未變。上周美國EIA原油庫存預期下跌280萬桶,但超預期上漲380萬桶,引發了市場對美國原油需求下滑的擔憂,受此影響,WTI與布倫特原油期貨價格上周分別環比下跌了1.2%與2.1%。我們認為原油庫存超預期大漲並不預示着油價基本面發生了根本性變化,我們注意到EIA原油庫存依舊維持在階段低位,而美國原油產量上周創歷史新高,反映出需求依然強勁,尤其是佔美國總需求80%的本土原油需求。EIA的數據顯示美國煉廠進油環比上升19.5萬桶/天,煉廠開工率上升2.3%至96.1%。

流動性受限。我們認為市場震蕩加劇下的流動性缺失是油服板塊上周大幅回撤的主要誘因之一。油服板塊平均去槓桿貝塔係數達2.1,我們注意到恒生波幅指數上周大幅提升,受整體市場影響,板塊顯著下挫。弱勢市場下風險偏好降低,我們認為市場流動性的不足進一步加速了下滑。上周香港市場的每日成交量低於18年上半年平均成交量1211億港元,5、6月份港股通南向資金較18年一季度減少了51%。

油服基本面向好。雖然油價波動加劇、香港股票市場弱勢,但我們注意到油服企業的訂單流依舊強勁。華油能源共有人民幣17.5億元的在手訂單(包括18年上半年的完成訂單),大部分訂單將在18年下半年錄得收入;安東在手訂單充裕,未來業績增長確定性強。根據我們的情景性分析,基於截止至7月份的在手訂單金額推算,華油能源與安東油田服務的18年歸母凈利至少大於人民幣1.0與2.3億元。海隆控股(01623:HK-增持)宣布中標價值人民幣1.73億元的鋼管防腐合同,合同金額佔17年底塗層業務板塊業務收入的69%,毛利率高於板塊平均毛利率29%。

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