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群益證券(香港)–華蘭生物:血製品如預期逐季恢復,四價流感疫苗Q4銷售將增加業績彈性【公司研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

公司業績:公司2018H1實現營收12.1億元,YOY+18.6%,錄得凈利潤4.5億元,YOY+5.1%(扣非後YOY+3.0%),摺合EPS 為0.49元。分季度來看公司2018Q1/Q2單季度分別實現營收5.6億、6.4億元,YOY 分別+4.4%、34.6%,分別錄得凈利潤2.1億、2.5億元,YOY 分別-18.8%,+39.7%,公司季度業績逐步恢復,符合我們的預期。公司同時預計Q1-Q3凈利潤YOY+0-30%。

白蛋白銷售恢復,其他血製品增長明顯:分產品來看,2018H1白蛋白實現營收4.7億元,YOY+7.9%,靜丙實現營收2.7億元,YOY-16.9%,其他血製品(主要是凝血因子類和免疫球蛋白類產品)實現營收4.0億元,YOY+92.0%。白蛋白銷售逐步恢復,考慮到下游銷售情況,公司將資源向其他血製品傾斜,使得靜丙收入下降,其他血製品收入大幅增長。從毛利率端來看,公司2018H1綜合毛利率為60.1%,同比下降4.3個百分點,白蛋白、靜丙毛利率分別同比下降7.9、5.3個百分點,其它血製品毛利率同比增加0.2個百分點。參考母公司毛利率同比提升1.2個百分點來看,我們預計白蛋白及靜丙毛利率的下降更多是由於重慶子公司產品降價所致。

建設銷售團隊,銷售費用率短期增加明顯,預計未來將會回落:由於2018H1公司繼續建設銷售團隊,銷售人員增加,使得公司銷售費用率同比增加2.9個百分點至8.6%;隨着營收規模的增加,公司管理費率同比下降2.1個百分點至11.1%;由於利息收入減少,財務費用率同比增加0.6個百分點至-0.1%。考慮到公司目前銷售人員擴張已基本完成,幷且未來營收規模將在學術推廣的作用下不斷回升,我們預計公司銷售費用率及管理費用率將會有所回落。

四價流感疫苗預計將在Q4放量,增加業績彈性:公司四價流感疫苗已在6月獲批生產,幷且公司產品已在陝西、重慶、湖南中標(中標價在108-128元)。考慮到競爭對手長生生物由於疫苗事件停產,公司將成為四價流感疫苗的獨家生產商,目前已被山東省要求單獨補標,預計後續隨着其他省份的陸續補標,公司Q4疫苗銷售將可放量。我們以公司的產銷計劃推算,預計公司2018年四價流感疫苗將可銷售700-800萬支,以目前108元的中標價推算,公司將可增加營收7.6億至8.6億元,按35%凈利率及75%持股比例計算,將貢獻歸母凈利潤2.3億至2.6億元。

盈利預計及投資建議:考慮到四價流感疫苗已在多省中標,預計Q4業績將會具備較大的彈性,我們上調對公司的盈利預測。我們預計公司2018/2019年實現凈利潤11.8億元(YOY +43.6%)/15.1億元(YOY+27.8%),摺合EPS 分別為1.27元、1.62元(原預計分別為1.04和1.27元)。目前股價對應的2018/2019年PE 為26倍和20倍。公司血製品銷售將繼續逐季恢復,四價疫苗在Q4流感季放量後將為公司帶來較大的業績彈性,我們維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:血製品銷售恢復不及預期;疫苗銷售不及預期

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