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中國銀河國際–策略:8月17日淡倉數據分析【投資策略】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

上周五,香港證監會公布8月10日的淡倉數據。我們根據以下三個標準分析哪些公司可能較受到賣空活動的影響:(i)8月10日至17日之間的淡倉凈變動;(ii)淡倉占自由流通量的比例;(iii)淡倉的絕對金額。我們必須強調,這只是基於官方數據的客觀計量分析;分析結果並不代表我們對一些公司的企業管治或基本面存疑。根據我們的分析結果以及最新的未平倉淡倉數據,我們注意到四環醫藥(0460.HK)和信利國際(0732.HK)的淡倉大幅減少。

四環醫藥:如圖3所示,截至8月17日的一周,四環醫藥的淡倉減少28.1%,未平倉淡倉相當於自由流通盤的4.57%。截至8月24日當周,五天移動平均賣空金額為149萬港元,低於截至8月17日當周的670萬港元。

信利國際:在截至8月17日的當周,信利國際的淡倉減少了16.7%,未平倉淡倉相當於自由流通盤的3.48%。在截至8月24日當周,五天移動平均賣空金額為27萬港元,低於截至8月17日當周的149萬港元。

資料來源:每逄周五,香港證監會都會公布可進行賣空股份在一周前的合計淡倉數據。港交所每天都發布有關賣空活動的數據(沒有延後性),但數據只反應當天新開的淡倉,但沒有未平倉的賣空統計。因此,香港證監會數據的最大用處是提供每隻股票的未平倉淡倉,投資者可以跟蹤每周的凈變動。然而,數據仍有一些限制:該數據無法涵蓋使用場外衍生產品進行的賣空活動。

以三個角度分析數據:(i)8月10日至8月17日之間的淡倉凈變動;(ii)淡倉占自由流通量的比例;(iii)淡倉的絕對金額。

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