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群益證券(香港)–中國太保半年報點評:壽險新單轉正,新業務價值率提升,產險增長穩健【公司研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

結論與建議:

中國太保上半年實現營收2047億,YOY增15.3%,實現凈利83億,YOY增26.8%,業績基本符合預期。從保費數據上來看,壽險在續期的拉動下實現兩成的增長,產險主要受非車險較快增長拉動也增長近兩成。從投資業績方面來看,公司加大對固收類資產配置,投資收益率方面整體表現穩健。看好公司較好的成長性,目前估值較低,維持“買入”的投資建議。

整體業績符合我們的預期:中國太保發布半年報,上半年實現營收2047億,YOY增15.3%,實現凈利83億,YOY增26.8%,業績基本符合預期。

壽險較快增長,2Q新單增速轉正:太保壽險實現保費收入1310億,YOY增18.5%,受益於公司較好的保費結構,續期業務YOY增四成至887億,成為上半年保費增長的主要動力,很好地緩和了受監管、理財產品競爭等影響,新單承壓(YOY降19.7%)的局面。不過從2Q2018單季數據來看,2Q新單已經開始轉正,實現8%的正增長。從保險產品來看,在倡導保險姓保的行業背景下,太保順勢加大了傳統險的銷售,YOY增26%至412億,其中長期健康險增43.2%,錄得保費178億。加大保障性產品銷售,新業務價值率較大概率會提升,從太保的表現來看,整體新業務價值率YOY提升0.8pct至41.4%,符合我們今年以來的預期。

產險增長穩健,主要為非車險拉動:從太保產險來看,上半年實現保費607億,YOY增15.6%,增長較快。主要受非車險拉動:上半年非車險共實現保費168億,YOY增33.1%,其中保證險、農險高速增長。車險方面,實現10%的增長。綜合成本率方面,較去年同期持平,錄得98.7%,費用率和賠付率一升一降。

加大固收類資產配置,投資收益率表現好於同業:投資端來看,總投資資產較年初提升8.9%至1.18萬億。資產配置方面,上半年加大了固收類資產配置(債券佔比較上年末增1.5pct,債券計劃提升1.9pct),幷相應減少了權益類資產比例(除增加非上市股權配置之外,其他權益類資產均有所減少)。投資收益率方面,凈投資收益率YOY降0.6pct至4.5%,年化總投資收益率為4.5%,YOY降0.2pct,降幅較凈投資收益率收窄,主要源於結算投資收益較去年同期由負轉正。

投資建議:上半年集團內含價值3092億,較年初增8.1%,實現較穩健的增長,結合公司全年目標新業務價值不負增長,我們對全年內含價值增長持樂觀態度。目前估值對應18、19年PEV分別為0.94X、0.8X,估值處於歷史底部,維持買入。

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