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中銀國際證券–工商銀行:凈利潤增速進一步提升,負債端優勢突出【公司研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

利潤增速進一步提升,手續費收入增長回暖。工商銀行上半年營業收入同比增7.0%,增速較1 季度下降1.7 個百分點,主要是凈利息收入增速(+10.6%,YoY) 在去年同期高基數的基礎上同比增速小於1 季度。2 季度公司繼續加大撥備計提,信貸成本同比提升25BP 至1.12%拖累上半年凈利潤增速表現至同比增4.9%,增速較1 季度上升0.9 個百分點。上半年手續費傭金收入同比增速較1 季度提升1.8 個百分點至3.4%,主要是信用卡和第三方支付業務的快速發展,使得銀行卡和結算清算收入上半年分別同比增16.7%/17.1%。

資產規模穩定增長,負債端優勢突出。2 季度總資產同環比分別增7%/3%, 其中2季度客戶貸款同環比分別增7%/2.5%,在總資產中佔比穩定在53%。負債端,存款2 季度環比增3%,在存款競爭激烈的情況下,存款在總負債中的佔比仍然保持在82.9%的較高水平,存款成本1.43%,較年初持平, 發揮出工商銀行作為大行在攬儲方面領先同業的優勢。上半年息差為2.30%與1 季度持平,展望下半年低資金利率逐步傳導到實體經濟,未來銀行資產端定價或將有所下行,考慮到工行在負債端的優勢,我們認為息差水平總體將保持穩定或小幅微降。

不良處置力度加大,資產質量整體穩定。工行2 季度末不良率為1.54%, 環比1 季度持平。逾期90 天以上貸款/不良貸款的比例較年初下降1.95 個百分點至79%,不良認定嚴格。我們測算公司加回核銷的單季年化不良生成率為1.08%,同比提升72BP,我們認為這主要是和2 季度實體經濟下行壓力增大有關。上半年公司加大了對不良的核銷處置力度,上半年清收處置規模同比增長97.8%。2 季度撥備覆蓋率環比下降1.3 個百分點173%,仍有提升空間。

評級面臨的主要風險

資產質量下滑超預期。

估值

我們預計公司18/19 年凈利潤同比增速為6.5%/5.6%,經過前期調整,公司當前股價對應2018/19 年PB0.85x/0.78x,維持買入評級。

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