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群益證券(香港)–國葯股份:2018H1凈利YOY+15%,業績符合預期,看好公司長期發展【公司研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

結論與建議:

公司業績:公司2018H1實現營業收入187.7億元,同比增長6.6%,錄得凈利潤6.4億元,同比增長14.8%(若剔除2017H1因調整壞賬計提標準導致多增的0.56億元,公司2018H1凈利實際同比增長28%),EPS為0.83元,公司業績處在業績預告的中位,符合預期。其中公司Q2單季度實現營收96.4億元,YOY+9.0%,錄得凈利潤3.8億元,YOY+21.1%。Q2業績增長較快一方面是業績恢復,另一方面是去年同期受陽光採購影響,基期偏低。

營收結構優化提升毛利率,幷入的四家子公司業績增長明顯:(1)公司營收穩定增長,但是結構得到優化,其中高毛利業態(麻精特葯、工業、器械等)銷售增長較快,而低毛利業態(受“兩票制”影響的分銷業務)銷售佔比下降,使得綜合毛利率同比提升2.2個百分點至9.2%,由於重組後國葯一直在積極擴大二類精神藥品以及拓展器械等新業態,我們認為公司綜合毛利率未來將會繼續上行。(2)幷入的四家子公司業績增長明顯:國控北京、北京康辰、北京華鴻、天星普信凈利分別同比增長7.1%、66.5%、31.8%、0%,北京康辰和北京華鴻凈利大幅增長主要是由於康辰的血製品銷售受兩票制政策影響較小,華鴻的SPD及器械增長較為明顯,天星普信H1業績同比持平,但是預計隨着下半年大品種的導入,業績將會恢復增長。

費用率略有增加:由於醫藥工業子公司國瑞葯業轉變營銷模式,銷售費用率同比增加1.3個百分點至2.8%,管理費用率和財務費用率分別微增0.1和0.2個百分點,總體來看,期間費用率同比增加1.6個百分點至4.3%。

看好公司長期發展:(1)重組融資後公司資金充裕,我們預計公司未來將會加速外延擴展戰略,快速確立“麻藥一張網”的目標。目前公司已出資1.5億認購國控中金醫藥產業基金,幷且公司以自有資金收購蘭州盛原葯業完善麻藥產業鏈結構。(2)重組後,公司積極推進新業態的發展,我么預計公司主推的自辦SPS+專業藥房、DTP藥房、醫院周邊藥房和合作醫院自費藥房等專業化零售藥房以及器械/診斷試劑SPD合作項目將會為公司打開新的增長點。(3)公司作為國葯集團發展混合所有制經濟的首批試點單位之一,改革進程預計將會加速推進,重組完成後,公司也制定了新國葯股份的發展戰略,我們預計公司在國企改革後將會釋放更大的活力。

盈利預測及投資建議:我們預計公司2018年、2019年凈利分別12.9億元、14.8億元,YOY分別同比增長13.3%、14.1%,EPS分別為1.7元和1.9元,對應PE分別為15倍/13倍,公司業績已有所恢復,長期又將在兩票制中受益,外延擴張以及新業態的發展打開新的空間,國企改革政策也仍在推進中,我們看好公司的長期發展,目前估值合理,維持“買入”建議。

風險提示:招標降價,業績恢復不及預期

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