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群益證券(香港)–招商銀行半年報點評:營收凈利增長強勁,資產狀況繼續改善【公司研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

結論與建議:

招商銀行發布半年報:1H2018實現營收1261億,YOY 增11.8%,實現凈利448億,YOY 增14.00%,業績基本符合我們的預期。收入端方面,非息收入方面表現不錯,利息收入增長穩健。資產品質方面,招商不良率繼續下降。

作為中國零售銀行領頭羊,招行目前零售業務佔比已達到一半以上,幷希冀通過金融科技方面的發力,進一步助力其輕型銀行轉型。我們看好公司零售業務繼續深化,以及金融科技發力背景下的高ROE,目前資管新規的邊際放緩及理財新規的相應放鬆(理財產品門檻放低至1W)預計未來也將對招行的業績帶來不錯的推動作用,公司ROE 高於行業(20%左右),目前估值合理,給與“買入”的投資建議。

1H2018凈利實現14.00%較快增長:招商銀行發布半年報,2018年上半年實現營收1261億元,YOY 增11.8%,實現凈利448億,YOY 增14.00%,業績與之前業績快報一致。對應年化ROE19.61%,YOY 提升0.50pct,高於同業。

非息收入高增,利息收入表現穩健:從收入端方面來看,驅動營收的主要為非利息收入,YOY 增17.7%至494億,銀行卡、信貸承諾、貸款業務傭金等業務為公司帶來不錯的手續費收入表現,另外去年基期較低(去年同期僅增1.22%)及I9實施也有一些影響。利息收入方面,受益於生息資產規模的穩健增長及息差同比提升(生息資產平均餘額YOY 增4.3%,其中貸款規模YOY 增9.55%;息差方面,錄得2.54%,較去年同期提升0.11pct),實現凈收入770億,YOY 增8.6%。

資產質量繼續改善:資產質量方面,1H2018招行不良率錄得1.43%,較去年同期下降0.28pct,與1Q 比,也呈邊際改善態勢,QOQ 降0.05pct。

之前在金融去槓桿監管背景下不少企業信用債違約,市場對銀行的資產質量繼續改善的趨勢有所懷疑,而從招商的業績來看,無疑是打破了這部分悲觀預期。招商資產質量的改善同樣對利潤也有反哺作用,幷帶來了較高的撥備水平(316%)。

盈利預測與投資建議:預計公司2018、2019年的盈利分別為803億、927億,YOY 增14.5%、15.4%,目前股價對應2018年、2019年PE9.0X、7.8X,PB1.4X,1.3X,估值合理,給予“買入”的投資建議。

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