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群益證券(香港)–山西汾酒:上半年凈利潤同比增56%,看好未來省外市場拓展【公司研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

結論與建議:

公司上半年實現營收50.4億,同比增47%,實現凈利潤9.4億,同比增56%,毛利率為69.65%,同比下降1.43pct。分季度看,二季度實現營收18億,同比增45%,實現凈利潤2.3億,同比增69.5%,由於2Q淡季銷量增長超預期,業績好於預期,毛利率為67.3%,同比下降3.1pct,毛利率下降較多的主要原因在於毛利相對較低的低價酒銷量大增。

分產品看,上半年,中高價酒營收30.4億,同比增33.5%,低價酒受幷入集團開發品牌所致,營收18億,同比增84%,配製酒1.5億,同比增12%,2Q中高價/低價/配製酒營收增速分別為16%/120.8%/30%(1Q增速分別為43%/66%/-2.3%)。報告期經銷商新增410家,總數達1678家,以地域來看,山西省內營收38.7億,同比增43%,省外營收21.3億,同比增53%,省外市場繼續迅速拓展。

費用控制得當,費用率小幅下降。報告期公司費用控制較好,受費用率小幅下降,由去年同期的24.76%下降至22.79%,1.97個百分點,主要受益管理費用率下降。2Q費用率同比下降1.41個百分點,為25.48%。

展望未來,以預收款看,2Q末公司預收款達8.2億,較1Q環比增14%,同比增121%,反映出公司管道拓展加速以及經銷商對終端銷售信心較強,預計進入下半年銷售旺季,公司業績有望保持高速增長。另一方面,此前,汾酒集團轉讓11.45%股權給華潤子公司,幷在日前公告華潤已提名2名董事進入董事會,雙方整合穩步推進,未來公司有望藉助華潤在全國的管道優勢,省外管道拓展加碼將有利業績增長。

盈利預測:維持此前盈利預測,預計公司2018、2019年將實現凈利潤13.5億、17億,同比增43%、27%,EPS分別為1.56、1.97元,當前股價對應2018、2019年PE分別為31倍和25倍PE,維持“買入”投資評級。

風險提示:行業景氣下降、省外業務增長不及預期、食品安全問題

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