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中泰證券–工商銀行18年中報解讀,業績增長平穩,負債端優勢顯著【公司研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

財報亮點:1、業績增速平穩,營收、PPOP同比在8個點左右。2、凈息差平穩,負債端優勢顯著:計息負債付息率環比下降1bp,活期存款佔比環比大幅提升1個百分點。3、結算和銀行卡手續費拉動凈手續費增速回升,同比+3.4%。4、費用管控較好,成本收入比繼續下降。1H18單季年化成本收入比22.24%,同比下降1.21個百分點。5、資產質量持續改善。財報不足:1、凈其他非息收入較弱,受公允價值變動凈損益和匯兌凈損益業務的虧損較多拖累,1H18同比下降63%。2、核心一級資本充足率環比下降,1H18核心一級資本充足率環比下降31bp。

財報概覽:營收、PPOP保持較高速增長,但較一季度稍有回落,其中與1Q17是低點也有關係;歸母凈利潤保持向上增速趨勢。1Q18、1H18營收、撥備前利潤、歸母凈利潤同比增長8.3%/7%、10.4%/8.9%、4%/4.9%。

1H18業績同比增長拆分:正向貢獻業績因子依舊為規模、息差、成本、稅收。負向貢獻因子為非息、撥備。細看各因子貢獻變化情況,邊際對業績貢獻改善的是:1、規模增速、稅收較一季度提升。2、非息負向貢獻減弱,二季度降幅縮窄。邊際貢獻減弱的是:1、息差、成本控制正向貢獻度較一季度減弱。2、撥備計提力度加大,負向貢獻增大。

投資建議:公司2018E、2019EPB0.83X/0.76X;PE6.55X/6.2X(國有銀行PB0.79X/0.69X;PE6.26X/5.88X),公司基本面穩健紮實,資產質量持續改善、盈利能力平穩高增,管理層優秀,是我們重點推薦的銀行個股,繼續看好。

風險提示:經濟下滑超預期。

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