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中國銀河國際–中國水泥行業周報:水泥價格繼續反彈;廣東將實施更嚴格排放標準【行業研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

平均水泥價格(全國性)在上周按周上漲0.45%至人民幣402元/噸。黑龍江、河南和安徽北部的水泥價格上漲人民幣20-40元/噸。在浙江和貴州沿海地區,水泥價格下跌人民幣20-30元/噸。8月下旬,由於天氣狀況逐漸好轉,水泥需求溫和復蘇。大多數地區的出貨量增加了5%至10%。預計9月初水泥需求和水泥價格將繼續上升。平均庫存水平(全國性)從前周的58.6%略微下降至58.4%。

上周煤價持平。環渤海地區發熱量5500大卡動力煤的綜合平均價格指數上周持穩於人民幣568元/噸,較去年同期低2.2%。

新的排放標準將於9月1日在廣東實施。在排放標準在2013年經修訂後,廣東省決定從9月1日開始在全省實施更嚴格的排放標準。在此公告之前,珠江三角洲地區的九個城市已採取了更嚴格的排放標準,涵蓋火電、鋼鐵、石化、水泥、有色金屬和化學工業。根據公告,未能遵守新標準的公司將被要求停產,並需糾正問題。我們了解到華潤水泥[1313.HK;買入]和海螺水泥[0914.HK;買入]過去幾年就提高環保標準作出投資。我們預期兩家公司不會受到影響,但一些較小的企業可能較難達到新標準,這應該有助大型企業取得市場份額。

我們覆蓋的水泥股上周平均上漲7.0%。水泥股上周大幅反彈。我們覆蓋的水泥股中,表現最佳的是華潤水泥,股價上周上漲8.6%;金隅集團[2009.HK;買入]的表現相對最弱,股價亦上漲3.6%。

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