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東吳證券–工商銀行:核心經營依然穩定,資產質量持續改善【公司研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

營收端穩步改善,其他業務成本低基數拖累撥備前利潤增速略有下降。Q2撥備前利潤增速略有下降。工商銀行上半年歸母凈利潤同比增長4.9%,其中Q2單季度增長5.7%,增速較Q1提升1.8pc。Q2撥備前利潤利潤增速為7.24%,較Q1下降3pc。主要由於其他業務成本較去年同期多增80億,去年基數較低主因子公司工銀安盛再保合約攤回保險責任準備金增多,導致二季度該科目下降明顯。剔除該因素,核心盈利能力仍然穩定向好。營收端:Q2單季度凈利息收入增速放緩,非息收入增長提速。上半年營業收入同比增長7%;其中,Q2單季度增速高達10.2%,較Q1提升6pc。凈利息收入方面:Q2單季度凈利息收入同比增9%,增速較Q1下降3pc,預計由於生息資產規模增長放緩導致。中收方面:上半年手續費及傭金收入同比增長3.4%,Q2單季度增速較Q1提升近4pc。其中,上半年銀行卡和結算、清算及現金管理類業務收入同比增長16.7%和17.1%,主要靠信用卡及第三方支付業務拉動。此外,承諾業務增長較快帶動相關業務收入同比增長30%。而資管新規和增值稅影響下,理財業務收入有所下降。其他非息收入上,保本理財產品已實現收益增加帶動投資收益相比去年同期多貢獻61億。

凈息差:高位持平,貸款利率提升,負債端成本優勢明顯。上半年凈息差為2.30%,較一季度高位持平。資產端,貸款利率較17年上升10bps;負債端,工行作為國有大行,客戶基礎穩固,核心負債尤其是活期存款來源穩定。存款成本較17年僅上升1bp,其中公司存款上升2bps,個人存款下降4bps,對凈息差有一定支撐。

資產負債結構:存貸款穩步增長,投資類資產增配基金及其他投資。資產端,信用卡貸款投放力度加大,基金及其他投資增加2200億。6月末,總資產規模超過27萬億,較3月末上升3%左右。貸款總額增長2.51%至14.93萬億。上半年新投放的7000億貸款中,個人、對公貸款基本各佔一半。其中,個人貸款除了主要投向住房按揭之外,信用卡貸款新增491億(新增佔個貸比重13.4%),而消費貸款壓降了近300億。投資類資產中,上半年增加2200億的基金及其他投資,增配近3000億的債券資產。負債端:核心負債增長穩定,二季度新增存款85%來自活期。6月末存款規模超過20.8萬億,較3月末增長3%,新增的6200多億存款中,85%來自活期存款,低成本負債競爭優勢明顯。二季度同業負債增加約680億,佔比仍不到10%,處於較低水平。

資產質量:繼續改善,撥備覆蓋率與一季度基本持平。不良率持平,但關注類貸款佔比大幅好轉。6月末,工商銀行不良率為1.54%,較3月末持平。分類型來看,對公貸款不良率較17年末提升2bps至2%,而個貸大幅下降10bps至0.8%。加回核銷及轉出的不良生成率為0.86%,相比去年同期增加0.27pc。但前瞻性指標關注類貸款佔比較17年末大幅下降72bps,餘額也下降接近800億。逾期指標繼續改善,不良認定標準趨嚴。6月末,逾期和逾期90天以上貸款佔比分別為1.81%和1.22%,較17年末分別下降0.2pc和0.04pc。不良/逾期90天以上貸款比例較17年末提升3pc至126.6%,不良標準認定趨嚴,資產質量管控嚴格。撥備計提力度加大,撥備覆蓋率與一季度基本持平。上半年工商銀行貸款撥備計提775.6億,相比去年同期多提166億。6月末撥備覆蓋率173.21%,比3月末略降1pc左右。

盈利預測與投資評級:工商銀行經營穩健,撥備前利潤高增長,業績增長逐季提速,凈息差連續三個季度回升;活期存款佔比繼續提高,核心負債穩定,負債端成本優勢明顯;在資產質量指標轉好的情況下,撥備覆蓋率提高至150%以上,未來有望打開利潤釋放空間。預計18/19/20年其歸母凈利潤分別為2996.05/3181.62/3412.75億,BVPS為6.33/6.97/7.66元/股,維持“增持”評級。

風險提示:宏觀經濟下滑;金融監管力度超預期。

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