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高盛高華證券–分眾傳媒:業績完全符合預期,增長強勁【公司研究】_研報(yanbao)

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【研究報告內容摘要】

業績分眾傳媒公布的業績完全符合預期。2018年上半年/二季度營收為人民幣71.10億/41.50億元,同比增長26%/29%。上半年/二季度凈利潤為人民幣33.47億/21.39億元,同比增長32%/50%。今年二季度息稅前利潤同比增長39%,高於一季度31%的同比增速。

分析截至7月底媒體終端總數達到216萬,隱含的今年以來增速約為44%,同比增速約為50%,符合我們的預期。管理層預計到2018年末這一數字將進一步上升至250萬,隱含的同比增幅約為55%。隨着樓宇廣告業務收入同比增長30%,今年上半年平均單屏收入同比下降約16%。

鑒於公司從4月份開始加快網絡擴張,我們預計今年下半年平均單屏收入將進一步下降。同時,我們認為營收增速將慢於終端增速,因為營收增長更多地受需求推動而非供應推動。鑒於公司大力擴張網絡,我們預計其2018年全年平均單屏收入將同比下降22%。

今年上半年/二季度毛利率上升1個/1個百分點至72%/74%。但考慮到終端加速擴張將推高租金和折舊成本,我們認為下半年毛利率將下滑。我們預計2018-2020年毛利率將進一步下降,並將在長期內復蘇。

今年上半年影院廣告收入同比增長約19%,在總營收中佔比16.8%。

影院廣告業務增速慢於總體營收增速,增長勢頭不足。我們預計該業務收入年均複合增速為17%,基本符合電影行業營收增速。

盈利預測和估值我們將2018-2021年每股盈利預測至多下調了3%,以主要體現下調後的樓宇廣告業務利潤率預測以及下調後的營收增速預測。我們將12個月目標價格從人民幣14.28元下調至13.89元,仍基於23倍2021年預期市盈率以8%的行業股權成本貼現回2018年計算得出。基於長期競爭優勢維持買入評級。

主要風險:來自競爭對手的競爭加劇和/或經濟增速放緩導致廣告增長乏力。

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